[NL2-NL10] jj 28

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($5)
      BB ($5.72)
      CO ($4.78)
      BTN ($6.48)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: J:club:

      fold, BTN calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.25, BB calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.75) 7:diamond: 2:heart: 8:club:

      Hero bets $0.52, BB raises to $1.25, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.73

      TURN ($3.25) 7:diamond: 2:heart: 8:club: A:diamond:

      Hero checks, BB checks

      RIVER ($3.25) 7:diamond: 2:heart: 8:club: A:diamond: 8:diamond:

      Hero checks, BB bets $1.92, Hero calls $1.92

      BB shows Q:spade: 8:spade:
      (Pre 31%, Flop 20.2%, Turn 11.4%)

      Hero shows J:spade: J:club:
      (Pre 69%, Flop 79.8%, Turn 88.6%)

      BB wins $6.62

  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dracsharp,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Did we have any reads about villain being able to raise TP or 99/TT for value?

      If not I would be more inclined to bet/fold the flop versus someone like him (not knowing anything but the stats). Or in the worst case scenario we can call one and ck/fold turn.

      I'm curious about your river play. What range are we putting villain on?
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      I didn't have info what he is raising but he was doing it for quite a while in a row.

      His range is rather wide and most do miss this board the legit value raise is 88-77,22,87s but he might do it with JJ-77,22,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s or even pure Ax bluffs.

      Turn helps his ax bluffs and i would really expect a bet there, by checking i am putting him on JJ-99,T9s,98s,76s,65s , river did help his 8x but draws did miss.

      On river i would most likely expect a bet from busted draw or 8x of which he only has 98s but if he is opening midpockets my call is even more valid. However his river aggro shows that he is passive i find it hard to believe an aggro flop raiser would check check down his 7 high.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      I didn't have info what he is raising but he was doing it for quite a while in a row.

      His range is rather wide and most do miss this board the legit value raise is 88-77,22,87s but he might do it with JJ-77,22,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s or even pure Ax bluffs.

      Turn helps his ax bluffs and i would really expect a bet there, by checking i am putting him on JJ-99,T9s,98s,76s,65s , river did help his 8x but draws did miss.

      On river i would most likely expect a bet from busted draw or 8x of which he only has 98s but if he is opening midpockets my call is even more valid. However his river aggro shows that he is passive i find it hard to believe an aggro flop raiser would check check down his 7 high.
      Well if you give him such a wide range you can even 3bet the flop for value.

      As played there aren't that many draws in his range and I doubt he valuebets a worse hand on the river. So really we need him bluffing so unless he raises flop with garbage and then cks turn to bet a somewhat blank river I doubt we will show a profit there.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Obviously this is based on his rather unrepresentative 4/9 raise cb ad 43% af. Which of course i expect to normalize but it's more than likely he is not only raising nuts.

      Do we really have a value 3b at the flop ? His weaker hands are not mainly draws.

      I would expect least 88-77,22,87s maximum 88-77,22,T9s,87s,65s to continue, even if he value raised a8 against flush doubt he can go with it.

      JJ-99,T9s,98s,76s,65s what he could have, the problem is 8x is rare so we either believe the 12%~ time he is betting we are beat or that he opens wider we should definitely call. Alternative is to donk fold 1/3-1/2 pot.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Obviously this is based on his rather unrepresentative 4/9 raise cb ad 43% af. Which of course i expect to normalize but it's more than likely he is not only raising nuts.

      Do we really have a value 3b at the flop ? His weaker hands are not mainly draws.

      I would expect least 88-77,22,87s maximum 88-77,22,T9s,87s,65s to continue, even if he value raised a8 against flush doubt he can go with it.

      JJ-99,T9s,98s,76s,65s what he could have, the problem is 8x is rare so we either believe the 12%~ time he is betting we are beat or that he opens wider we should definitely call. Alternative is to donk fold 1/3-1/2 pot.
      8x should not be that rare. 78,89, 8T, possibly J8, Q8, K8, A8 (he looks loose in the BB). And then 99/TT and rarely QQ+ or sets.