[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH Ajs bluff the river?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($31.83)
      BB ($39.53)
      UTG ($20.65)
      Hero ($20.30)
      CO ($29.36)
      BTN ($22.79)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: A:diamond:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.60

      FLOP ($1.70) 4:club: 2:diamond: 9:heart:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, BB calls $1.10

      TURN ($3.90) 4:club: 2:diamond: 9:heart: K:heart:

      BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

      RIVER ($8.90) 4:club: 2:diamond: 9:heart: K:heart: 8:club:

      BB checks, Hero checks



      fcbet OOP - 71 (7)

      note:
      call in BB vs CO w JJ, call cbet KTx, cbh 7, cbh 8

      I was considering bluffing the river because I don't put him on Kx. He should not call with overcards on flop, especially OOP.

      So I put him on PP. But he can have TT-JJ I assume. Lower PPs should be folded on flop or turn.

      So on the river he should have 22 44 99 TT JJ. Can he fold those TT-JJ on river? If yes, I have 40% FE. But he is going to showdowns, so I am not really sure. And then if he has set, I am paying him a lot. Because I cannot bet less than half pot - then he is mot likley not beliueveing. I have to bet 2/3 I guess which is 30 bbs. So the question is it worth?
  • 6 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,908
      Hey,

      If his calling range on the flop is only pocket pairs and he is a regular, how often does he fold those on that turn?

      He folds overs on flop imo so he never has Kx. Would he believe you have Kx if you only bet the turn? I would actually triple for value with JJ+ here against him but would be a bit less inclined to bluff given his higher than average WTSD.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      If his calling range on the flop is only pocket pairs and he is a regular, how often does he fold those on that turn?


      No idea. Small PPs 88- should fold.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,908
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      If his calling range on the flop is only pocket pairs and he is a regular, how often does he fold those on that turn?


      No idea. Small PPs 88- should fold.
      So if many pairs fold on turn, what is he left with on the river?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      So if many pairs fold on turn, what is he left with on the river?

      TT-JJ . But I understood your opinion, they don't fold, so no need to bluff.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,908
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      So if many pairs fold on turn, what is he left with on the river?

      TT-JJ . But I understood your opinion, they don't fold, so no need to bluff.
      Not only that but those are 12 combos that fold. Compare to what doesn't fold and you might not have a profitable bluff. Maybe he folds some hands like that but maybe he has some Kx in his range too. It's rly rly close and when people tend to call more, I think bluffing becomes bad. :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Maybe he folds some hands like that but maybe he has some Kx in his range too.


      I really don't believe that he has Kx - he would fold overcards on flop.