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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - 77: set vs overshove river

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      53/15
      3.3af
      49% wwsf
      52% agg% river
      327 hands


      BTN: $25 (100 bb)
      SB: $15.13 (60.5 bb)
      BB: $22.14 (88.6 bb)
      Hero (CO): $25.37 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:heart: 7:club:
      Hero raises to $0.75, BTN folds, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.25) J:heart: 8:spade: 6:diamond: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($2.25) 7:spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

      River: ($5.25) K:club: (2 players)
      SB bets $12.88 and is all-in, Hero?

      Agree with this range?


      Board: J:heart: 8:spade: 6:diamond:  7:spade:  K:club:
             Equity  Vencer  Empate
      MP2    38.71%  38.71%   0.00% { 7h7c }
      MP3    61.29%  61.29%   0.00% { 88, 66, KJs, T9s, KJo, T9o }


      So should i fold?
  • 4 replies
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      I dont think I'd ever fold this. Big fish with 60bb, and 88/T9 are the only realistic combos that beat us. And K is a total blank, so most draws missed.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      But you think he over shoves for bluff here? He might pot with bluff, but overshove this size i think its unlikely.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Potodds are ~42%.
      Even if we assume he never-ever bluffs here, plus we take JJ/54s into his range, plus we dont count with all twopairs just Kx twopairs, we have it...

      Board: J:heart: 8:spade: 6:diamond:  7:spade:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     42.50%  42.50%   0.00% { 7h7c }
      SB     57.50%  57.50%   0.00% { JJ, 66, KJs, K8s-K6s, T9s, 54s, KJo, T9o }
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      hi,

      you are assuming the fish never bluffs (spade draws missed after all). he could also be randomly valuebetting KsXs in a retarded manner. i don´t think i could ever find a fold here. not thrilled about it but our set is too strong to fold IMO.