[NL20-NL50] A9s 4bet cold bluff

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 103.08 BB
      Hero (SB): 101.4 BB
      BB: 377.44 BB
      UTG: 52.6 BB
      MP: 54.48 BB
      CO: 131.76 BB

      Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:club: 9:club:

      fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 10 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Hero wins 24 BB


      BTN 156 hands, VPiP 26, PFR 24, 3bet 8. fold to 3bet 78.
      CO 140 hands, VPIP 28, fold to 3bet 100.

      Is it good spot to bluff cold 4bet? BTN 3bets quite often, and they should give me a lot of credit here. It needs to work less than 50% to be profitable, and I think they fold a lot in this situation.
      If they would call I would just check fold.

      This was a small sample, but if the sample is larger, is it ok move?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey mlatasrb,

      Preflop: How did you calculate the less than 50%? Your bluff actually has to work 63% of the time (not considering post flop).

      However, you should have plenty of FE here without a crazy dynamic. I would also 4-bet smaller at 23-24 BBs.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      I invested 24 BB, to win 14BB (I am sb, so posted 1 BB). 14/24 = 59%
      I didnt calculate it I just said approximately.

      Would you cbet if one of them call, and on what board?
      e.g flop: 2,5,7
      I think this is bad spot, because he calls with JJ, QQ, KK, AA at least once, maybe even AK.

      flop: 2,5,K

      We can fold here JJ, QQ, maybe even TT. Is it ok cbet 50% pot which has to work 33% of time? I block A, so there are less combos of AK, and AA, and he probably goes all in preflop with KK and AA.

      flop: 2,5, A

      Should I cbet, or play passively? If he checks back flop, I can cbet turn?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Without info/history I would not cbet most flops. Calling a cold 4-bet is usually done with a very strong range.

      BTW we invested 0.5 BB in the SB (in fact a bit less because we put in 0.10) and big blind put 1 BB in

      So we are risking 24.5 to win 14.5

      So it's 62.8% or so. Not a huge difference with 60% but it's a big one versus 50% (in these spots).

      Either way though we should have enough FE.