Least Prone to Downswings

    • Duane317
      Duane317
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.12.2007 Posts: 76
      What's the type of game thats least prone to downswings, variance, etc. for no limit hold'em? (Shorthanded, Full Ring, SnG.....)

      You can even suggest a type of SnG like qualifiers, double or nothing, turbos, deepstacked, or others.

      Oh, and please state why this is so.

      I just feel that a really stable poker career would be so very very wonderful. :rolleyes:

      Thanks in advance :D
  • 17 replies
    • brian997
      brian997
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 475
      NL10 FR SSS has had the least amount of variance for me. This is over about 15k hands. NL20 has had a lot more variance, reaching a swing as low as 22BI over a few days.
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      there's a lot of variance everywhere, that's poker. If you can't handle it, it's no use switching to other games
    • FrozenRope
      FrozenRope
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2007 Posts: 283
      When you find one let me know. Variance is the bitch of poker, she has no regard for your skill, past achievements or the game you play. She doesn't care that you play SSS, BSS poker, or SNG. When variance hits, you just ride the wave that is poker.

      How do you deal with variance there is only one hard and fast rule that you have to adhere to at all times.

      PLAY WITHIN YOUR BANKROLL

      Really all I can recommend is that you choose a game format that you enjoy. Work hard as you can at playing your best all the time. Study everyday the many great articles on the site, and practice what they are teaching in video's. I would try hard to stick to one game and again play within your BR if you do those things you will find success. Once you become a winning player you then can branch out to other games.

      I didn't really answer your question, however I do wish you the best of skill.
    • Ruleza
      Ruleza
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.07.2008 Posts: 1,787
      NL10 SSS has been a downswing for me the moment I started.
    • masfe
      masfe
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2007 Posts: 3,319
      Double or Nothing SNG's have very little downswings..


      Played around 40 so far, 4 sessions:

      1rst: 8 UP, 2 DOWN
      2nd: 4 DOWN, 6 UP
      3rd: 7 UP, 2 DOWN
      4th: 5 UP, 4 DOWN


      The negative session are the ones where i lost a couple of pocket pairs, 2nd session lost 4 all-in's:

      KKvsAA 2 times
      QQvsAA
      KKvs88

      And still lost only 3 buy-in's.


      I'm not saying that they are good because of my recent scores, made some decent results on regular sng's over 300 tournaments and i still think they are very swingy.


      Let's see, 10 players, 5 double up, if we just play premiums, we are gonna get to 50/100 blinds with 7 players, max 8. Then we are down to 2 players out of money, 3 in. I don't really think there are large downswings here compared to normal sng's and cash game.


      EDIT: I'm talking about mansion tournaments, pacific ones are turbos and can have a little more swings
    • sismis
      sismis
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      Joined: 27.10.2006 Posts: 352
      You can only beat variance by playing lots of hands. About 1 mio hands should be enough to give you fair result :P
    • FrozenRope
      FrozenRope
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2007 Posts: 283
      But your not beating variance, as it will always be there. You can be ahead or behind the Variance bitch but she is there waiting.
    • DrFunk
      DrFunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2008 Posts: 348
      It doesn't matter what kind of poker you play. You will always get sick downswings, breakeven periods, whatever. You can't get around it. But variance is awesome. It gives us the fish.
    • arjun2001
      arjun2001
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 352
      I think cash games in general have less variance than SNG's. Obviously MTT has the highest variance, then SNG's and then cash games.

      Hope this helps! :)
    • finchybg
      finchybg
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.12.2007 Posts: 910
      full ring cash
      of course there is variance and there are days when you just can't win but on the whole it's the type of game that is the least prone to huge variance.

      After a total of at least 75k hands(maybe more.. I started to record them just in the beginning of june) playing full ring since I started and I've never had any MAJOR downswings for a double-digit number of buy-ins(actually I don't remember a downswing bigger than 5-6 BI). Of course if you are tilt prone they may end up being quite more severe.

      It's not late for a bigger downswing to come but that's my experience after 7-8 months of play.

      Played SSS and SNG, there's more variance definitely. Never tried shorthanded cash but as far as I can see from other people's graphs, variance can be killing sometimes.
    • sw0ldo
      sw0ldo
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2007 Posts: 397
      NL variance in this order from most to least (imo):

      MTT > HU SNG > SNG > HU CASH > SH CASH > FR CASH
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      That just depends on your BRM I think.
      How do you define variance ? Swings in terms of % of your bankroll, in buyins or in relation to expected winrates ?
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by sw0ldo
      NL variance in this order from most to least (imo):

      MTT > HU SNG > SNG > HU CASH > SH CASH > FR CASH
      actually IMO...

      MTT > HU CASH > SH CASH = SNG > HU SNG > FR CASH.

      HU SNG is actually pretty non-swingy.
    • sw0ldo
      sw0ldo
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2007 Posts: 397
      So you're saying playing with less BB's = less variance? lol
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      MTTs and SnGs are the worse, with BSS on SH I've got 2 downswings now and sometimes you just have to go to a coinflip or make a call when you're probably ahead then you're not, plus the bad beats it gives a big variance...

      As far as I know the least variance is NL SSS or maybe NL BSS FR...

      Apart from HU, SnGs and MTTs are the worse, push-or-fold phase it's just too swingy...
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by sw0ldo
      So you're saying playing with less BB's = less variance? lol
      i dunno. i find a lot of loose/passive players in the HU SNGs, and they're a pretty steady source of income unless you get coolered ;) .
    • TerrorBlade
      TerrorBlade
      Black
      Joined: 16.10.2007 Posts: 1,922
      /the game I'm playing