[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH J8 fold 2 pair on turn?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($11.53)
      BB ($20.42)
      UTG ($19.15)
      CO ($4.66)
      Hero ($21.35)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: 8:club:

      UTG calls $0.20, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, BB calls $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

      FLOP ($2.50) 5:club: 7:diamond: 8:spade:

      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.90, BB calls $1.90, UTG calls $1.90

      TURN ($8.20) 5:club: 7:diamond: 8:spade: J:heart:

      BB checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6, BB calls $6

      RIVER ($26.20) 5:club: 7:diamond: 8:spade: J:heart: K:club:

      BB checks, UTG bets $10.45 (AI), Hero folds, BB folds

      UTG wins $24.89

      BB:
      20/17/1.8, fcbet 43, wtsd 18, 347h (if need more stats, then I will post)

      UTG: 46/0 28h
      note:
      cal vs minsteal in SB w 98o, chekc 662fd, check Q, donk 1 bb8 river w 2nd pair

      looks like there is at least a set when its multiway and he donks. He could donk 7J, 5J. But T9 is also very likely in his range.

      On the other hand - SB should not have set, on such a board he should really donkbet or c/r.

      I called turn, because fold might be too weak vs weaker 2 pairs, but not sure.
      He could actually hav slopplayed 57, 78, 58 and for some reason wake up on the turn.

      How do you think?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi

      Flop bet is way too large. U are unnecessarily bloating the pot.
      Turn is a call and so is river. Sure 9T get there but u still beat a lot of random crap from utg like aj or jt

      He is a 46 vpip fish he can show up woth a ton of worse twopairs, overpairs like aa etc
      River odds are also too good for u to fold
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Flop bet is way too large. U are unnecessarily bloating the pot.


      But there is many draws, 2nd pairs, weaker top pairs, so I bet to get max value. They are definitely calling. Is it so wrong?

      About worse 2 pairs - I was probably unconstiosly thinking - this would be an excuse to believe that those worse to pairs do not raise on flop. Yeah, but I agree there are also worse 2 pair who just have hit.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Protection is overrated... when ur hand is weak. U do hav some value but u shoudlnt bet so large.

      Board is rainbow btw so u are mostly betting for value vs straight draes and most of them have some sort of pair to go with them. And these combodraws have almost 50% equity vs ur hand. And j are behind q8 k8 a8