[NL2-NL10] Thin value bet on the turn or not?

    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      Guy plays in 69 hands VPIP/PFR/AF/Fold to F Cbet 38/21/1.5/43(3 out of 7 times) with Call PFR 29.

      I just remember him cold calling w 34o a 4x raise once and raising himself 4,5x with AK and stacking off vs a midstack with it on QT7 rainbow by cbet/calling.


      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (UTG): $16.43
      CO: $18.40
      BTN: $11.45
      SB: $15.02
      BB: $8.16

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J:heart: K:club:

      Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, SB calls $0.35, fold

      Flop: ($0.90, 2 players) A:diamond: K:heart: 7:spade:
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.10, 2 players) 8:heart:
      SB checks, [color=red]Hero ???
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Deo,

      I would actually check back the flop.

      Villain has a ton of Ah hands in his range and the value we get is very thin.

      As played I'd check back the turn, the bet would be too thin.

      What do you think his range is?
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      Something like Ax, K9o+, K7s+, 77-JJ, and some 7x hands like 76o,78o,76s-79s. Maybe some gutters with backdoor flush draw continue also like QdJd half of the time or less.
      Basically, i don't think he is folding any of the above to the flop cbet except some of the gutters.
      On the turn i think he continues with all Ax,77, 78, 76 and 79 of hearts, KJ+.
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,350
      I'd bet here with my whole range, makes our play rather exploitable if we cbet here only if we have Ax. We still have position, so we can check-back most of the turns and reevaluate the river. And we definitely can bet for value, this kind of guys might have some random GSSD that they will call your bet.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Deomedes
      Something like Ax, K9o+, K7s+, 77-JJ, and some 7x hands like 76o,78o,76s-79s. Maybe some gutters with backdoor flush draw continue also like QdJd half of the time or less.
      Basically, i don't think he is folding any of the above to the flop cbet except some of the gutters.
      On the turn i think he continues with all Ax,77, 78, 76 and 79 of hearts, KJ+.
      So you are expecting this guy to be a huge station and call 3rd pair to a double barrel on this board?

      Do we have some history of him calling down this light?

      @Cpallo, you are worried about being exploitable at 10 nl versus a fishy guy? How exactly?
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      On my first post i mentioned for a 34o hand he called a 4x raise pre-flop and on a A4x flop he called a cbet to turn trips and win a medium size pot vs some guy with AK.

      So that's why i expect him to call with 3rd pair on the flop and have a little wider range of calling again on the turn.