[NL2-NL10] NL50 AQs Ugly river

    • daeh01005
      daeh01005
      Silver
      Joined: 17.03.2008 Posts: 416
      Full Tilt Poker
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
      7 players
      Converter

      Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A Q
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, MP1 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

      Flop: A 5 4 ($6.25, 3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $4.5, CO calls, BB folds.

      Turn: T ($15.25, 2 players)
      Hero bets $9.75, CO calls.

      River: 2 ($34.75, 2 players)
      Hero ??? .

      What a ugly river!!
      Villain is calling staion.

      VPIP is above 40, AF is below 1.

      On the river, 2 is totally suck.

      So which play would be best choice?

      b/f ? c/f ? c/c ?
  • 7 replies
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      To me the river is blank. For an oesd he needed 63 which is very unlikely, so you think he was drawing at a gushot?

      You say that he's a calling station, so you need to valuebet more and bluff less. I think it's more likely that he had you the whole way with a set, 54, A5, A4 or something than that he just hit he deuce on the river. So valuebet this river.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      With that VPIP he can have every hand that's possible (FD, OESD, two pair, set, weak ace). I say check/call on the river, or a blocking bet.

      And I don't see a bad river there, it's unlikely he has a 3 there. I think you're saying that because you know the result, but river it's a blank.
    • Azbers
      Azbers
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 18
      b/f here,but not value bet, blocking bet.I'm pretty sure he has Ax(where x<10) he might have cought 2 pair with one of the cards down, or even a straight
    • clockshovel
      clockshovel
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2008 Posts: 22
      I don't think the river is a blank as mentioned by posters. Villain could easily have A3, 43, or 53 here considering how loose he is.

      Ugly river for sure with that VP$IP, I would probably check call or block bet as suggested by another person. More-so lean towards the check call, I think.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Why should vilalin hold 3.
      To me river is also blank.
      You can c/c for bluff induce or shove to get called by worse aces.
    • daeh01005
      daeh01005
      Silver
      Joined: 17.03.2008 Posts: 416
      He got 3K spades.
    • clockshovel
      clockshovel
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2008 Posts: 22
      Why should vilalin hold 3.

      because:

      "Villain is calling staion.

      VPIP is above 40, AF is below 1."


      that means a 3 is very well in his range, imo.