[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH T9s

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.53)
      BB ($8.62)
      UTG ($28.73)
      UTG+1 ($24.56)
      Hero ($20)
      BTN ($5.86)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: T:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.30) 2:club: Q:diamond: Q:heart:

      Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

      TURN ($2.70) 2:club: Q:diamond: Q:heart: J:heart:

      Hero bets $18.80 (AI), BTN calls $4.66 (AI)

      RIVER ($12.02) 2:club: Q:diamond: Q:heart: J:heart: 7:diamond:

      BTN: 18/16/1.2, fcbet 50 (8), wtsd 29, w$sd 56,
      flop agg. freq 39%, 509 hands

      notes: open w AQ, c/c 9xx 2/3, c/c 1/2 7 w A high, c/c 1/2 K w A high - STATION
      open UTG 2.5 bb w AKo, c/c 976 2/3, c/mr A w TP, call 3bet

      flop cbet according to notes is really bad, he can easily call. BUt on the other hand I can barrell 9+ turns, because he has weak range. The bad thing is that he is short for barreling. So in conclution probably its c/f flop.

      On turn I hit draw, so I guess this should be fine as played to make fold his weak range and I was hoping to make fold low PPs with such big bet.
  • 6 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Speed,

      One of your notes reads, in capitals, "STATION".

      This board is perfect for a station not to fold anything so I have to strongly agree with the no cbet policy especially given our weak equity in the hand.

      Considering he has such a small stack (overall) I doubt he will fold that many pairs on the turn. He may fold some Ax but as our read notes he wasn't able to fold that before (even though board was slightly different).

      Even though we picked up a draw it's a weak one at best. 8 outs for roughly 16% equity.

      Out of curiosity have you calculated how much FE you actually need in this hand?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Out of curiosity have you calculated how much FE you actually need in this hand?


      I need equity:

      4.66/(4.66+2.7) = 0.63

      I have some equity - as you said 16%. So I need 47% FE. Its lot.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Out of curiosity have you calculated how much FE you actually need in this hand?


      I need equity:

      4.66/(4.66+2.7) = 0.63

      I have some equity - as you said 16%. So I need 47% FE. Its lot.
      Did you not calculate that FE using your 16% equity?

      3.9144 we lose on average (84% of the time)
      1.1776 we win on average (16% of the time)

      2.7368 / 5.4368 = 0.503 or 50.3% FE.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Did you not calculate that FE using your 16% equity?


      I got 47% = 63 % - 16%

      So as you see in my calc I used it.

      I am not used to calculate the way you did. Should we not get the same result? Or I use wrong way to calculate?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Did you not calculate that FE using your 16% equity?


      I got 47% = 63 % - 16%

      So as you see in my calc I used it.

      I am not used to calculate the way you did. Should we not get the same result? Or I use wrong way to calculate?
      Well when you calculate FE you have to use the equity you have as part of the equation so to me your calculation looks wrong.

      What you did was look at how you would do if you had 0 equity in the hand and that's the 63%.

      Now my calculation involves equity in the hand:

      We multiply what we stand to lose times how often we lose (84% of the time).
      We multiply what we stand to win times how often we win (16% of the time).

      Then we substract win from loss and should be negative (so assuming 0 FE we have a negative return). Let's call this number -X. We then divide X by (X+the pot we stand to win if he folds) and multiply by 100 - that's our FE.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Bookmarked :)