[NL20-NL50] NL50sh - Folding top 2 on the flop.

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey guys!

      Villain:
      21/18/450h reg. 2.5AF . Callopen BTN 11%
      RaiseCB IP flop: 0/5

      Blinds are fishy (kinda fishy)


      Flop:
      He reps AQ and 44. I block AQ... Is he raising ATcc-AKcc, that's the main question probably! Since he probably wants the fish in the pot and not many worse hands can call him I thought he was more likely to call those hands. So should I really reraise and hope to splitt?

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2051023
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $54.00
      SB: $250.92
      BB: $88.72
      UTG: $35.81
      Hero (CO): $51.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Q :heart: A :diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1.37, BTN calls $1.37, SB calls $1.12, BB calls $0.87

      Flop: ($5.48) 4 :club: A :heart: Q :club: (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4, BTN raises to $13, SB folds, BB folds, Hero folds
  • 11 replies
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      We need like 44% EQ to be BE here!

      Best case:
      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 4cAhQc
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 46.30% 29.94% 16.36% { AdQh }
      MP3 53.70% 37.35% 16.36% { 44, AQs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, AQo }


      When we remove 1 flushcombo:

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 4cAhQc
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 46.30% 29.94% 16.36% { AdQh }
      MP3 53.70% 37.35% 16.36% { 44, AQs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, AQo }


      1 more:

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 4cAhQc
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 46.30% 29.94% 16.36% { AdQh }
      MP3 53.70% 37.35% 16.36% { 44, AQs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, AQo }


      So I probably made the right decision.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi

      Fyi 45% equity is really high. Firstly theres dead money. Secondly no one said ur only options are to shove or fold.

      I call and check raise allin on a blank turn.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Well I really need 45% when we discount rake. :P

      Yes calling an shove blank turn is def. an option but only if we think he is playing combodraw, AhiFD like this. Do you think he's the guy who plays it like this? I have a feeling that he's rather calling and we rly have to discount those combo's.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      U shuld stop putting peple on ultra tight and narrow ranges and making sper nitty folds. Yes he has 44 here a lot. But im sure he can show up w more than that. So bc f and cr t is my fav line here.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by mbml
      U shuld stop putting peple on ultra tight and narrow ranges and making sper nitty folds. Yes he has 44 here a lot. But im sure he can show up w more than that. So bc f and cr t is my fav line here.
      Okay :( But can you please then give some proof why his range could be wider? Or is it just something like 'oh well, he'll spew sometimes' ? I think
      way he is never ever spewing.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Am I the only one that thinks A4s is definitely in is range?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by double2
      Am I the only one that thinks A4s is definitely in is range?
      Hmmm was totally forgotten this.

      Although I think most people 3bet or fold this hand pre, he also doesn't have a wide callopen%
    • tadcka
      tadcka
      Black
      Joined: 29.07.2011 Posts: 511
      And if we call the flop and then turn comes :club: ? We then just simply lay our hand down? On a blank villain can also check behind. Maybe I'm wrong, but when the board is suited, here being OOP I like raising here again and getting in on flop.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think getting it in is fine but callinf reduces variance. I also think most ppl w combodraws will barrelturn and commit thenselves
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Why does everyone think this is easy broke???? ?(

      Give me ranges and numbers guys. Also say why you think he would raise AcXc in this spot. I agree that he could have KJcc, TJcc indeed but even then we don't have enough EQ to go broke.

      What is math behind flatting flop and going broke on non club? Is it +EV then?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      U gave urself 46% equity and u already put in 5 and pot has like 5 more. Dead money commits u