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[NL20-NL50] TT overpair vs fish (K river?)

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Silver
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $54.60 (109.2 bb)
      Hero (SB): $61.15 (122.3 bb)
      BB: $23.43 (46.9 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $15 (30 bb)
      CO: $49.35 (98.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with T:heart: T:diamond:
      MP posts BB OOP, UTG folds, MP checks, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, CO calls $2

      Flop: ($6) 4:heart: 4:spade: 3:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.60, CO calls $4.60

      Turn: ($15.20) 8:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $10, CO calls $10

      River: ($35.20) K:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $10, CO raises to $32.25 and is all-in, Hero calls $22.25


      55/0 20 hands 56% agg. He played the last hand the same way, but i didn`t saw showdown.

      Flop and turn are easy valuebets. Size?

      On the river, this K shouldn`t change much. I though i can still get value from worse pairs with a small bet and induce him if he has a busted draw(FD/67), because he might be aggresive postflop and his raising range for value will be narrow?

      MP2 68.75% 68.75% 0.00% 88, 44-33, A4s, K4s, Q4s, J4s, T4s, 65s, 54s, 43s, A4o, 65o, 54o
      MP3 31.25% 31.25% 0.00% TdTh

      I need 20% to call the river and he has a lot of FDs in his range, that i didn`t include.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      he might be aggresive postflop and his raising range for value will be narrow?


      The problem with that statement is that it's what you want him to do, not a logical deduction of what he is likely to do. Sometimes those 2 things match but more often then not, what you want doesn't match with what they actually do.

      To me this is a bigger turn bet and shove river for value if you think he calls down with a lot worse on flop and turn or bet turn a bit bigger again and check/call river since most fish bet too much with their busted river draws but they don't raise them. If you want to induce, bet like $2 or something.. betting $10 is quite obvious a thin vbet imo so he won't be as likely to raise a wide range plus you miss out on value from hands like 8xs, 99, maybe 55-66 also gets stubborn.