[NL20-NL50] Baluga Theorem turn fold?

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      ハンドをプレーする

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Known players:
      BU:
      $28.40
      SB:
      $26.25
      BB:
      $28.50
      MP2:
      $25.92
      MP3 (Hero):
      $36.06
      CO:
      $32.45

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, K.
      MP2 raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.30, 4 folds, MP2 calls $1.55.

      Flop: ($4.95) 3, J, 7 (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.60, MP2 calls $2.60.

      Turn: ($10.15) 8 (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP2 raises to $21.02(All-In), Hero calls $15.52.

      River: ($52.19) 4 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $52.19.

      his stats in 12 hands  vpip33 pfr33 af1 wtsd25

      BEP on the turn 30.3%

      should I fold as Baluga Theorem says?
      I called cuz I thought only hands I am losing to is JJ.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      This is a 3b pot so his range may potentially be wider than 2p or better. Baluga theorem isnlargely applicable to single raised pots.

      Im not thrillwd with calling cos ee lose to jj 78s 88 77 T9s but we may be ahead of tt 99 aj etc so we are committed imo. Nice hand.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Whut? TT , 99? he must be a spewfish to play it like that. AJ is the only hand we hope to see but most players just call again with it.

      I think it's good to fold. Thoughts?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      I think its a fold vs a minraise but a call vs a shove. This is purely based on experience (shoving ranges are significantly wider)

      I do think this is a close spot. I expect our equity to be somewhere around 25-35%