[NL2-NL10] [NL2 SH] JJ 2nd barrel

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $4.78 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 2.0, Hands: 419
      CO: $5.07 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 80
      BTN: $9.51 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 25, 3B: 9, AF: 2.2, Hands: 314 -- F2CBF: 25, F2CBT: 100, WTS: 29
      SB: $2.28 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 2, 3B: 3, AF: 2.2, Hands: 84
      Hero (BB): $2.68 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 4.3, Hands: 14030

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with J :club: J :heart:
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.08, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.26, BTN calls $0.18

      Flop: ($0.53) Q :spade: A :heart: 4 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.30, BTN calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1.13) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.64, BTN folds

      On the turn I though that I could make queens fold here due to his F2CBT, but apparently what folds most here is floats, but not 2nd pairs :facepalm: Yup?

      So we should prefer a passive line and check/fold here, given his moderate aggression. Yup? :)

      ...or maybe check/call, if we expect some floats? Why would one float here though?

      Thank you.
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi German

      What do you expect him to call your 3 bet with?

      What's his fold to 3 bet over this sample?
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Okay, we've got a problem here :) I have 314 hands on him NOW, but I used to have only 98 at that moment. HEM2 is hopeless...Sorry Bogdan, I'll stop using "copy with stats" when sample sizes differ a lot.

      So THEN he was 43/28/RFI BU: 80/ F23B: 40

      If it was really 80 and 40 he would have a 48% range here, say 40% minus 4bet range :f_biggrin:

      But let's say it's rather 60 RFI and 50 F23B. Then his range is about 25%, with pockets, medium aces, all possible speculative hands (incl. AXs) and probably some suited broadways on top.

      So he could have many weak aces, quite a few queens, and many gutshots. I can make gutshots and air fold on the turn, but I'm not sure whether he can fold sth like QK, rare QJs, random QTs.

      As he still has a ton of aces and queens, I would tend to check/fold. This guy would be perfect when we hit our non-pair hand, since we'll dominate him all day long.

      Is it close to the truth? :)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Th334
      Okay, we've got a problem here :) I have 314 hands on him NOW, but I used to have only 98 at that moment. HEM2 is hopeless...Sorry Bogdan, I'll stop using "copy with stats" when sample sizes differ a lot.

      So THEN he was 43/28/RFI BU: 80/ F23B: 40

      If it was really 80 and 40 he would have a 48% range here, say 40% minus 4bet range :f_biggrin:

      But let's say it's rather 60 RFI and 50 F23B. Then his range is about 25%, with pockets, medium aces, all possible speculative hands (incl. AXs) and probably some suited broadways on top.

      So he could have many weak aces, quite a few queens, and many gutshots. I can make gutshots and air fold on the turn, but I'm not sure whether he can fold sth like QK, rare QJs, random QTs.

      As he still has a ton of aces and queens, I would tend to check/fold. This guy would be perfect when we hit our non-pair hand, since we'll dominate him all day long.

      Is it close to the truth? :)
      Two other things to get you thinking.

      How often do we need him to fold given our bet size (hand)?

      If you were to equilab his range (a bit tedious) what % of it can you expect to fold in the best case scenario vs worst case scenario?
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Two other things to get you thinking.

      How often do we need him to fold given our bet size (hand)?

      If you were to equilab his range (a bit tedious) what % of it can you expect to fold in the best case scenario vs worst case scenario?
      He will fold on average 17 combos of stronger hands (QT+ with no FD), but he has like 80 of ones he doesn't fold (AJs and below, AQo-A8o, QK, 44, QhTh). So he will fold only 18% of his stronger range, and a 1/2 pot bluff needs to work at least 33% of the time. Stronger doesn't fold, we have only two outs that don't compensate the lack of FE, so we should focus on a passive line and check.

      If he bets, we need to know where we stand against a bet. As I don't see many hands we are ahead apart from a few semi-bluffs, and I don't have notes that he turns weaker pocket pairs into a bluff here, I would tent to trust his bet and fold.

      Even if he checks behind, I would rather check/call blank river than bet fold, to induce a bluff from busted draws and maybe weaker pockets. If we bet, again, nothing weaker is gonna call us, and only busted QhTh might fold that wouldn't on the turn.

      PS: We don't try extracting value from his draws because there's no need to protect our marginal hand -- we are most likely behind anyways. To protect a hand it needs more than 50% equity against his range, because protection bet is also a value bet, right?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Yeh, so if he has a ton of Ax hands which he most likely would there's no value in that bet of ours. And turning it into a bluff is marginal because we can't expect him to fold Ax and even Qx may not fold to a second bet.

      Usually a protection bet is a byproduct of a value bet. We want to get value for our hand but at the same time protect it.