[NL20-NL50] NL25Sh 99 3bet Qhi flop, valuebet?

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Poker Stars
      SB ($46.15)
      BB ($114)
      UTG ($75.54)
      UTG+1 ($104)
      CO ($62.50)
      Hero ($31.65)

      UTG antes $0.05
      UTG+1 antes $0.05
      CO antes $0.05
      Hero antes $0.05
      SB antes $0.05
      BB antes $0.05

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: 9:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, SB raises to $2.50, fold, Hero calls $1.88

      FLOP ($5.55) Q:club: 4:diamond: 6:club:

      SB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

      TURN ($11.05) Q:club: 4:diamond: 6:club: 8:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($11.05) Q:club: 4:diamond: 6:club: 8:diamond: Q:spade:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      Hero shows 9:diamond: 9:spade:
      (Pre 56%, Flop 70.9%, Turn 86.4%)

      SB shows A:club: K:spade:
      (Pre 44%, Flop 29.1%, Turn 13.6%)

      Hero wins $10.55

      So I'm delibaretely not including villain stats because I want an answer about who you would valuebet or not turn/river. Thanks :)
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DaPhunk,

      First, we have to ask ourselves what would we valuebet against?

      A high? 55/77?

      Since the range we target is rather narrow and we can also get ck/raised a fair bit on that turn by his value range/semibluff range the vbet would be really thin. I would say it would depend on my history with villain.

      If, for example, I'm calling a lot of his 3-bets and then barreling when he shows weakness we can bet 99 here and river for thin value.

      Otherwise it would be hard to call it a real valuebet but more of a bet to take down the pot and get him to fold his equity in the hand.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I'm thinking that some villains could certainly be loose / fishy enough to make some sort of 3bet preflop with hands that look pretty like T9s, JTs, 89s, A9s, A8s etc they may cbet flop and hit a pair or gutshot on turn and suddenly slow down (not sure why they would slow down with GS but they do sometimes)

      So on turn I'm wondering, apart from Ahi and 77/55 maybe we can ever find a villain we could valuebet against who has some piece of the board but somehow either likes is current showdown value enough to check or likes to play draws passively. I'm never surprised by AJ, AT C/Calling here and not any more by 47 or T8o.

      The big problem here, is that everything is starting to get extremely specific and we're starting to need some excellent reads on villain by which time I think it'll no longer be a difficult decision on whether to bet or not but obvious.