[NL20-NL50] nl25 SH K9s flush vs river minraise

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,376
      went through this hand and preflop is a fold or squeeze spot and so calling isn't very good...

      MP = 23/15 over 335 hands, but he opens in MP 18%.
      BU is 19/0 over 38 hands so im assuming he's not solid otherwise he'd have some PFR.

      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      PartyPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($48.13) 193bb
      UTG+1 ($25.59) 102bb
      CO ($43.92) 176bb
      BTN ($38.24) 153bb
      SB ($29.92) 120bb
      DrDunne (BB) ($25) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) DrDunne is BB K:club: 9:club:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold, DrDunne calls $0.50

      Flop: 8:club: 3:diamond: 5:club: ($2.35, 3 players)
      DrDunne checks, UTG+1 bets $2, BTN calls $2, DrDunne calls $2

      Turn: 4:club: ($8.35, 3 players)
      DrDunne checks, UTG+1 checks, BTN checks

      River: 8:spade: ($8.35, 3 players)
      DrDunne bets $5.79, UTG+1 folds, BTN raises to $11.58, DrDunne calls $5.79

      Final Pot: $31.51
      DrDunne shows
      K:club: 9:club:
      BTN shows
      3:club: 3:spade:

      BTN wins $29.94 (net +$15.61)

      UTG+1 lost $2.75
      DrDunne lost $14.33

      turn was a failed checkraise

      on the river i have to be good <20% of the time here so my question is AM I EVER GOOD? i dont wanna fall victim to selective memory but im always telling myself river minraise = nuts. and at the same time i can rarely get away given the pot odds...
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrDunne,

      Preflop: Considering we will be OOP with a mediocre hand I prefer the squeeze preflop (without much info on villains). We do have relative position at least and a suited Kx hand.

      Postflop: Can we expect BTN here to check back a weaker flush? Probably not.

      I think he can check back an 8x hand that may think it's good on the river so I don't think we can fold. It's true that min raises min strength usually but the hand was played passively so he may overvalue his own hand (especially since our bet wasn't especially big on the river).