[NL2-NL10] bad luck, or bad play

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2054415
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $21.90 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 10
      BTN: $5.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 1,1, Hands: 221
      SB: $3.85 - VPIP: 37, PFR: 31, 3B: 24, AF: 26,0, Hands: 75
      Hero (BB): $5.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 80383

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with J :diamond: K :heart:
      2 folds, SB raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.30) 4 :club: 9 :diamond: 6 :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

      Turn: ($0.70) 3 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

      River: ($1.60) 9 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

      Final Pot: $3.40
      SB shows 8 :heart: 3 :heart:
      Hero mucks J :diamond: K :heart:
      SB wins $3.26
      (Rake: $0.14)

      I really HATE to fold, just because I miss vs a supermaniac. HE MISSES as much as Me aswell, and K-high is good. I mean, just look at his hand, He just got very lucky, and sucke dout
  • 6 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Imimba,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I've seen a few of these from you before. Sure he has a weak hand too but he can also play Ax like this and any pair.

      I like calling here with backdoors and overall when we have a bit more equity and chance to win.

      Equilab your equity even against a wide range and see how poorly we actually do.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Same as the other hand wait for least a decent pair and call him down.

      When you miss 1/3 times lets say you lose usually 3bb when you hit he might loose his whole stack, or just his bluffs about 40bb, sure he might have better hand but you do not need to fight with a king high.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Same as the other hand wait for least a decent pair and call him down.

      When you miss 1/3 times lets say you lose usually 3bb when you hit he might loose his whole stack, or just his bluffs about 40bb, sure he might have better hand but you do not need to fight with a king high.
      Exactly, against a guy like him, on which we have position there are 101 better spots that are around the corner. We don't need to push small equity spots with him, our edge is far greater than that.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Equity Win Tie (On this board)
      MP2 36.29% 35.19% 1.09% KhJd
      MP3 63.71% 62.62% 1.09% 40% range
      That is my problem, I have the equity to call.

      Maybe I have a leak: I overvalue small sample stats. I dont even have 100 hands from him, and I'm calling down with K-high.

      But I guess you guys are right, with a decent hand I'd just call him down, that is fine.

      Could you please tell me, where is the theoretical mistake here? :
      BUT THIS IS A CASHGAME, we can, and must squeeze out every bit of profit we can. If I get stacked, I can reload. As long as it's +EV play, we must do it, we must call down. If this was a tournament, I'd totally agree with you guys. If we have e.g.40% edge, we shouldnt go in this situation.
      But in a cashgame, if the situation is even SLIGHTLY +ev, we can, and we must go for it. If not, WE LOSE VALUE.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      I feel you overthinking this, you even have worse eq than him. I see that you think that you had an oddscall on every street but even assuming he bets any card 3 streets which is quite a leap then we know we are calling 3 bets, we know that we are putting in alot, at this example 1,55 in 3,4 pot

      So 1,6/3,4 47% needed without considering rake. That is why i said i would least have a 2. pair against maniac but i prefer tp, and i am not calling down with a 2. pair if ace is on the board also. Maniac can also decide he is going broke anyway overshoving just because that is why i prefer tp, i lost many pots where i was calling maniacs down then he 3x overshoved river and i let that one go.

      Short, just don't go near marginal spots against maniac.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      I feel you overthinking this, you even have worse eq than him. I see that you think that you had an oddscall on every street but even assuming he bets any card 3 streets which is quite a leap then we know we are calling 3 bets, we know that we are putting in alot, at this example 1,55 in 3,4 pot

      So 1,6/3,4 47% needed without considering rake. That is why i said i would least have a 2. pair against maniac but i prefer tp, and i am not calling down with a 2. pair if ace is on the board also. Maniac can also decide he is going broke anyway overshoving just because that is why i prefer tp, i lost many pots where i was calling maniacs down then he 3x overshoved river and i let that one go.

      Short, just don't go near marginal spots against maniac.
      +1

      Imimba I think you are forgetting that you actually call multiple streets and not just one.

      So on the river we get about 28% pot odds (after rake) and even against a wide 40% range betting there you aren't doing that great. And you are assuming he bets all of his range the same.