[NL2-NL10] AK vs reg

    • Stedyeddy
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,502
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      BB ($92.99)
      UTG ($50)
      UTG+1 ($30)
      UTG+2 ($25.75)
      MP1 ($8.56)
      MP2 ($52.68)
      Hero ($21)
      BTN ($23.48)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: K:club:

      UTG raises to $1.5, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero??

      1.5k hands

      Utg: 8%
      F3bet: 55%
      4bet: 22

      I think that in this situation play 3bet/broke could be EV-.
      Pay is better?

      -If i hit a flop like A :heart: Q :spade: 3 :diamond: , recomend the call down?

      -If hit a flop like A :club: T :club: 9 :spade: recomend the raice-call whit Tp TK?

      -and if hit a flop like Q :club: 9 :heart: 5 :club: ? fold?

      Ty :f_grin:
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Pretty interesting spot here.

      So 8% from UTG should look like that - 22+, AQs+, AQo+. He could probably has AJs and KQs as well, but I'm not sure for those.
      So I think that he's going to stack off for 40bb with TT+, AK here which is 46 out of 110 combos - 42%, and in the rest 58% of the times he's going to fold.
      So we win in 58% of the time 4.5bb and in 42% of the time we stack off with 40.5% equity so we invest $21 to win roughly $17 which means that each time we stack off we lose $4.

      So if we do the simple maths we will see that we will lose money if we 3bet/go broke.

      3b/folding won't be a good idea either, since we just don't have enough FE.

      So we are left with calling and folding.
      Folding is pretty weak in my opinion here but what do we do if we call here?
      We don't have the initiative and can hardly hit any good draws. Now we have to take a look at his postflop stats - does he cbet flop and turn a lot and how aggressive is he overall?

      If we call, I think we probably have to call down the AT9tt board here. I doubt he has any draws at all here, but he might find a fold here with AQ so I'd just call down.
      On the AQ3r I think we can call one street and then give up since I really don't think he'd bet with worse hands on the turn.
      On the Q95tt I'd just fold the flop.

      Overall, this is a pretty tough spot where you can argue about all three options being wrong, and still can't really find a good one.
      I would lean towards call most of the time, although calling with MSS might not be the best idea especially if you are not familiar with postflop play. I think it's quite important to have a plan how to outplay him postflop if you for a call here - for example if he cbets a lot on the flop and check/folds the turn a lot we can float him a lot and then just pick up the pot on the turn.

      It came out a really long post, so if anything is left misunderstood do not hesitate to press the "advice the judge to have a second look" button and I'll answer your questions.

    • Stedyeddy
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,502
      Wow prety logn post. Ty.

      Maybe is easyer to play SH.