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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 33 herofolding set on the river

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BB: $83.64 (167.3 bb)
      UTG: $35.25 (70.5 bb)
      Hero (MP): $51.85 (103.7 bb)
      CO: $68.30 (136.6 bb)
      BTN: $51.79 (103.6 bb)
      SB: $62.44 (124.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 3 3
      UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($5) 4 3 Q (3 players)
      SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3, UTG folds

      Turn: ($11) 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB calls $7.50

      River: ($26) 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $16.50, SB raises to $50.44 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Anon table.

      SB played 21/14 after 40 hands, AFq 23. No special reads yet, seems like an average TAG, not overly aggro so far.
      Flop/turn sizes are too small...
      Is it OK to bet/fold river? His line is superstrong, plus he almost instashoved, which made me think it's less likely he's bluffing, cause even he pulls out a move like this (bluff of his life :D ), I guess he would have tanked a bit about it at least.
      River potodds are 22%.

      Board: Q:heart: 4:club: 3:club:  8:spade:  9:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    12.50%  12.50%   0.00% { 3d3h }
      SB     87.50%  87.50%   0.00% { QQ, 44, JcTc, 9c8c }

      Even is I put some combos of busted draws and Q:c9/Q:c8 in his range, it's very close at best.
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Not sure why u are putting qq in his range he would and should almost alqays be squeezing.
      I think he reps so narrow that we are forced to call.
    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      I thought that he could overcall even QQ vs UTG open sometimes (nitty regs are able to do this in my experience, afraid of "strong UTG range"...). But now I see that UTG is not even a reg, so you're right, he shouldnt have QQ in his range at all...

      So if we take just one more combos of Q:c9, then we have a call... :(

      Board: 4:club: 3:club: Q:heart:  8:spade:  9:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { 3d3h }
      SB     66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { 44, JcTc, Qc9c, 9c8c }