[NL2-NL10] NL25, AKs, lost 2x buy-in on the river

    • Balanarm
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Hello there, I am making the very 1st post on these forums. I am not really a novice, I used to play poker in the past for 1-2 years, then I had a break for a year, and now I am back to action thanks to this great portal PokerStrategy.com.
      This is a hand I played today and would like to share my thoughts on it/get a professional opinion, like is it profitable to check-raise turn versus possible floating when you have a draw and so on...

      Played at PartyPoker.com. Me and villain both got double up earlier in this session.

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.57 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:heart: , K:heart: .
      8 folds, Hero raises to $1,00, BB calls $1,00.

        This is pretty standart move.

      Flop: ($2,00) 2:club: , 7:diamond: , 8:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1,35 BB calls $1,35.

        Here I believed he was trying to float me, because I saw him doing this several times and he is agressive player (33.3/18.1/5.2) . So I call.

      Turn: ($4,70) 2:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $3,5, Hero raises to 10,50$, BB calls $10,50.

        Turn is giving me a good draw, I check, he bets and I raise because I believe he is floating(with hands like 89, 67 he would more likely check to control the size of the pot, and still I can move him off these with a good sized raise). I put him on possibly an underpair, 9T, weak Ace, like A3-A6, maybe AT-AJ or even worse hand, I am ahead of almost all of them and I hit a good draw now so that's why I decided to make a raise. He took long time to think before calling. His call really worried me!

      River: ($25,70) 6:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $22,00, BB raises to $36,40 (All-in), Hero calls $36,40.

        I hit my draw, this is sweet, however I am out of position so I decide just to bet nearly thesize of the pot, because I believe it's more profitable in long run, hoping he had T9. His all-in raise really surprised me!

      Final Pot: $98,50

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a flush, ace high (Ah Kh)
      BB shows a full house, sixes full of twos (6c 6d)
      BB wins with a full house, sixes full of twos (6c 6d)
  • 4 replies
    • Philipvw
      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      Nice analysis. It sucks to hit your hand after such a scary call of him on the turn. It would prolly also go broke. However, in retrospect, he can only have exactly 87, 77, 88, 22 and maybe, just maybe an overpair. I wouldn't bet the river. He won't have T9. C/c.

      I think the turn c/r might be the root of the problem. I understand why you did it, and with a good read it can work. However: he will only call with hands that are very strong! In this case, on a harmless 872 2 board so strong that you (almost) can't count on your K or A outs and only have your flush out. And in this case, with the paired board, you also need to discount them. Think of some strong hands, that he will just call with, is another heart enough to beat him?
    • Balanarm
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Why are you stating that he must have had 87 (78 I beat with K or A), 77, 88 and not T9? He could make a flop call with with something like KJ(I think he would actually call the flop with any two overcards in position) to float, then the turn is standart bet and when I raise, the pot becomes big enough to call with straight draw and flush draw, though I would not call with any kind of those draws or with pair of 6's as in this case, I can understand him calling, he had a good read on me probably, check-raise turn is what I do very often and it works 80% on micro limit tables because it seems very scary to novices. I didn't include 77 and 88 in his range because he would be definitely raising me preflop with that. After he called my raise on the turn I put him on 2 hearts, 9T, 89 or maybe 87, 33-66 less likely(but he had 66 :( ). Your thoughts on this are very helpful, thank you!
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hello Balanarm, very nice analyzes and first post.
      But you have to remember that you don´t have the nuts, so c/r turn and getting it all-in on the river might be mistake.
      I´d c/c turn, since you have very good draw and you´re deep.
      River is probably bet/call to me, but since I went pot control on the turn then I don´t loose my whole stack.
    • Balanarm
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Thank you very much. c/c the turn seems a bit weak to me, the draw is very thin due to the paired board and it's only 1 card to come(the odds to make the nuts are very small), I never like calling, semi-bluff is much more EV+ imo, and especially in this particular situation, where I gave him about 50% floating chance, so I prefer to either raise or fold here, maybe fold is what I needed to do.