[NL20-NL50] 50fr KJ BU

    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $65.95 (131.9 bb)
      SB: $28.53 (57.1 bb)
      BB: $92.66 (185.3 bb)
      UTG+2: $75.64 (151.3 bb)
      MP1: $55.39 (110.8 bb)
      MP2: $50 (100 bb)
      MP3: $73.99 (148 bb)
      CO: $53.36 (106.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K J
      UTG+2 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1.50, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($5.25) 8 A 6 (3 players)
      UTG+2 bets $3, MP3 folds, Hero calls $3

      Turn: ($11.25) K (2 players)
      UTG+2 bets $6.50, Hero raises to $22.33, UTG+2 folds

      Results:
      $24.25 pot ($1.33 rake)
      Final Board: 8 A 6 K
      Hero mucked K J and won $22.92 ($11.92 net)
      UTG+2 mucked and lost (-$11 net)

      VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2,2, Hands: 1251
      Flop CBet 92
      Turn CBet 71
      WTSD 22
      W$SD 47
      CBet-Fold 57

      Should I have raised on the flop instead of turn?
      I wasn't sure he would have folded an A if he had one, and I wanted to extract more "value" from his numerous bluffs.
      That was the reasoning behind turn-raise instead of flop.
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      How much does he open UTG?

      Flop raise should be both credible (you don't slowplay sets 131bb deep here almost ever) and he has a weak range once he cbets 90% unless he opens only very strong hands from UTG.

      On the turn, you do realize you are bluffing, right? I would usually just flat turn again because my hand is just too good to raise/fold and his value range is weaker and weaker. You can potentially bluff some rivers as well but if he is bluffing turn often, you beat most his hands and when you raise he will usually shove or fold. When you have a bluffcatcher and it has huge redraw, you don't really want your opponent to shove.. Granted, he doesn't shove here often because he has so few hands that can but just something to consider.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      How much does he open UTG?

      Flop raise should be both credible (you don't slowplay sets 131bb deep here almost ever) and he has a weak range once he cbets 90% unless he opens only very strong hands from UTG.

      On the turn, you do realize you are bluffing, right? I would usually just flat turn again because my hand is just too good to raise/fold and his value range is weaker and weaker. You can potentially bluff some rivers as well but if he is bluffing turn often, you beat most his hands and when you raise he will usually shove or fold. When you have a bluffcatcher and it has huge redraw, you don't really want your opponent to shove.. Granted, he doesn't shove here often because he has so few hands that can but just something to consider.
      Yeah you know what this is not the first time I think I'm not bluffing when I'm raising a Pair+FD.
      I think reading a gazillion times on the articles "with more than 12 clean outs you can usually go all-in" made a thing in my head telling me "W00000T a monster draw, I'm at over9000 equity!".
      No.
      Not really.
      You are on a semibluff and are rarely around 50%, you ass of a brain.

      So, ignore what I did in the hand.

      Is it better to just flat twice and re-evaluate river to see what to do, or is it better to outright raise on flop?
      If we raise on flop, and he raises back, we fold right?

      If I try to answer myself I'd say it's better to raise because against a 92% flop CBet of a semi-loose player (but he seems good) we don't have that many implied odds, but we do have FE, right?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      He bets wide, we have equity, probably dominate his draws and have position -> call flop best imo. I'd raise spades for example. or lower FD if you have it in your range, like 9 high.

      Raising turn does make some sense because turn raise looks a lot stronger so you maximize the chances he folds a bare ace but which ace can he have? Many Ax are blocked because there's an ace on flop, you have J, AK blocked by your K and the turn plus it doesn't fold to a raise. I don't think your play is -EV/unprofitable, I am just thinking if calling is quite likely better with so many outs and implied odds. Again, raising a hand like lower flush makes way more sense because he can barrel better draws and you have reverse implied odds very often. Here, your K and J are at least 50% of the time clean imo and your flush is very very often clean, plus if it isn't, he doesn't fold TP + NFD to your raise.

      I think it's all about comparing 2 profitable plays here and maximizing our winnings, not about + or - EV.