[NL20-NL50] AK vs huge flop shove

    • zumpar
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      finally @ higher evaluation forums for the first time :P

      so... Here i had ablolutely no idea where im at otf

      on one hand i didnt see him calling 44/88 pre cause he doesnt have good implied and he looked solid

      on the other hand i cant see him shoving worse like KQ/KJ type of hand

      56hh/67hh/57hh are also unlikely call 3bet pre so i just made a crying call

      iPoker - $0.20 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BB): $42.60
      UTG: $3.76
      MP: $31.39
      CO: $25.19
      BTN: $20.18
      SB: $23.28

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.20

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

      UTG calls $0.20, fold, CO raises to $0.60, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.00, UTG calls $1.80, CO calls $1.40

      Flop: ($6.10, 3 players) K:diamond: 4:heart: 8:heart:
      Hero bets $3.40, UTG calls $1.76, CO raises to $23.19, Hero calls $19.79

      Turn: ($54.24, 3 players) K:club:

      River: ($54.24, 3 players) J:club:

      Hero shows A:spade: K:spade: (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 58%, Flop 52%, Turn 69%)
      UTG shows T:diamond: J:spade: (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (Pre 22%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
      CO shows K:heart: T:heart: (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 21%, Flop 45%, Turn 31%)
      Hero wins $51.53
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      CO calls here pairs with those odds and a bit deep, also having position imo.

      That said, he is unliekly to have 2pair.. there are 6 set combos in my view after preflop action.

      You can probably flip a coin whether to call or not.. If you think he is unlikely to shove sets like this and it's more often a flushdraw you can call.. on average you should at least break even or make a small profit.

      This is sort of scenario I expect. The more you can discount sets or add worse Kx, the better for you:

      Board: K:diamond: 4:heart: 8:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    37.05%  23.23%  13.82% { AsKs }
      MP3    62.95%  49.13%  13.82% { 88, 44, AKs, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh, KhTh, 7h6h, 6h5h, AKo }