[NL20-NL50] nl25 JK sh turn semibluff

    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      1.6k hands


      The plan

      I preferred to call this rather than 3bet, even though that looks profitable too. I had been 3betting just about all of his late position opens but thought here it was better to try and exploit him postflop with a dominating hand, given taht he cbets the flop quite a lot.

      So the plan was to float the flop then take the pot on the river when he goes into check/fold mode on the turn.

      The deviation

      So yeah, the turn comes and gives me an OESD and he 2/3 pots it, so I figure it's worth a semi bluff given his opening range is 60%. The plan then was to go with it if the FD completes or I hit.
      I guess I should have raised it another dollar to get stacks in, but my math on the fly isn't the greatest... working on it...




      PokerStars - €0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: €51.43
      BTN: €25.85
      SB: €33.64
      Hero (BB): €26.14

      SB posts SB €0.10, Hero posts BB €0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: €0.35) Hero has J:club: K:spade:

      fold, BTN raises to €0.60, fold, Hero calls €0.35

      Flop: (€1.30, 2 players) 7:heart: 3:heart: Q:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets €1.00, Hero calls €1.00

      Turn: (€3.30, 2 players) T:spade:
      Hero checks, BTN bets €2.10, Hero raises to €6.30, BTN calls €4.20

      River: (€15.90, 2 players) A:spade:
      Hero bets €18.24 and is all-in, BTN calls €17.95 and is all-in

      Hero shows J:club: K:spade: (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 35%, Flop 15%, Turn 23%)
      BTN shows A:diamond: Q:diamond: (Two Pair, Aces and Queens) (Pre 65%, Flop 85%, Turn 77%)
      Hero wins €51.05
  • 6 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      He does not cb that often, only 50% on flop and turn and I think his turn cb there is pretty strong. His wts also suggests he isn't folding much and will call down river with Q And possibly sometimes even a T.

      I prefer check raising flop more and we can continue betting on some cards like K A any flush draw complete. His range there is weaker.

      I could also consider the plan of check folding the flop since he does not bet often and leading the turn and river as a bluff of he checks flop
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Thanks for the help.

      He is cbetting flop 68% if that changes anything?
    • nmipeis
      nmipeis
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2013 Posts: 4
      Hey Jules

      How often do you check raise the flop with 33 77 or flush draws? because if its alot then your turn raise doesnt rep a great deal...

      Thanks

      James
    • nmipeis
      nmipeis
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2013 Posts: 4
      do you think he 3bet flush draws on the turn often vs your raise?
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Originally posted by nmipeis
      Hey Jules

      How often do you check raise the flop with 33 77 or flush draws? because if its alot then your turn raise doesnt rep a great deal...

      Thanks

      James
      I think I'd check/raise 33 or 77 on the flop against this guy 100% of the time. I think I'd be 3betting those hands often preflop verse him too. I am 3betting a lot from the blinds here and only calling strong dominating hands.

      I think I'd call flop and wait for the turn with flush draws against this guy. I am pretty strong here I think?... I'm not sure this guy is really taking what I rep into consideration anyway?


      So when I x/r the turn I probably have a range of:
      TT,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QTs,KJo,QTo



      When he cbets the the turn, I think he often has a low FD heavy and TP/not so great kicker heavy range. Something like:

      (most of the suited cards are hearts only, 27% hands )

      QQ+,JcJh,JdJh,JhJs,77,33,AQs+,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KJs+,Kh9h,K8s,Kh7h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,Q2s+,JhTh,Jh9h,J8s,Jh7h,Jh6h,Jh5h,T7s+,Th6h,Th5h,98s,9h7h,96s,9h5h,8h7h,8h6h,8h5h,7h6h,7h5h,7h4h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h,5h3h,4h3h,ATo+,A7o,A3o,K9o+,Q7o+,J9o+,T7o

      So that (60% equity my way)plus some FE, looks pretty good to me? :f_p:



      Originally posted by nmipeis
      do you think he 3bet flush draws on the turn often vs your raise?
      I don't think this guye is ever reraising a flush draw there on the turn. But what if he was? How would I take that into consideration?
      I suppose since I'm raise/folding the turn, if he only does it with K or A high flushes then my raise is still ok, but if he starts shipping it with less than it's not so hot.
    • nmipeis
      nmipeis
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2013 Posts: 4
      Hey jules,

      I Certainly dont think that your line won't be plus EV vs someone who isn't reading hands well enough to see that your range lacks value combos, but someone who can see that will adjust to shove draws and not fold any qx hands.

      Your maths seems reasonable and if your assumptions about him not exploiting your weak range are true then you have nothing to be worried about.

      If he did adjust and start getting it in with fd's on the turn, then maybe you could c/r flops less with sets and 2 pairs and strengthen up your turn range with them, but as you have pointed out.... that doesn't seems likely from this villain.

      Thanks

      James