[NL20-NL50] SH NL50 zoom AQ trips 3way pot

    • dooleslovs
      dooleslovs
      Diamond
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 484
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $76.35
      SB: $50.00
      BB: $15.75
      UTG: $50.00
      Hero (MP): $64.64
      CO: $62.75

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q:heart: A:diamond:

      UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, BTN calls $1.50, fold, fold

      Flop: ($5.25, 3 players) A:heart: 4:heart: A:club:
      UTG bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, BTN calls $4.00

      Turn: ($17.25, 3 players) 2:club:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $8.50, BTN calls $8.50, fold

      River: ($34.25, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      Hero bets $20.00, BTN raises to $62.35 and is all-in, fold

      Vilian tight reg 19/15 wts20 w@sd 80, over 350 hands, do you think there value bet OTR is good?
  • 8 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Hi

      Whats his utg open raise percentage? If its rly tight like 12% i just fold aq from this position.

      I wonder if u have value in a river bet. The tight reg isnt gonna have too many worse ax in his rangem heprobably folds AJo here preflop. That leaves him wih mostly AXs and some busted flushdraws.

      Would he even call those on a four straight board when u bet turn and river?
      I slightly prefer cc esp on this river coordinating card

      But fold when raised. I dont think this guy is messing ard
    • jachis
      jachis
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 745
      Hi,
      Why do you bet so small on the turn, and what worse hands do you expect to get called by OTR?
      Do you expect BTN to call with FD 2streets, I guess your turn sizing might widen his calling range OTT, but I doubt his calling this river with worse. I think he can easily slowplay flopped FH, or call down from the flop w Ax hand which fullhoused up until river.
    • dooleslovs
      dooleslovs
      Diamond
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 484
      HI from his VPIP/PFR ratio we see what he likes to call, from 320~ hands I can not assign his exact flatting range 3 way IP. But i think it should be all Axs, 44 of course, and I am not sure about ATo,AJo, if it would be NL25 rush it is definatly in his range, but maybe on NL50 they are a bit more clever.

      So there is 7 combos which beat us, and 10 - 13 combos which vould call, but I doubt if he would bet himself if ch. There are of course busted flush draws in his range too, which he could sometimes turn into bluff, but it is qiute tough to say if ch/c or b/f is more EV+. IMO.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Im not sure why u think only 7 combos beat us. We lose to A2s-A5s, AK, 44 which is like 11 combos.
    • dooleslovs
      dooleslovs
      Diamond
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 484
      I did not count AK, if we count all AK combos then its 10 combos that beat us. I am not sure if he is sqz AK vs UTG 100% of the time..
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Oh yes my bad i kept thinking we were vs utg.i agree that ak is heavily discounted.
      But still i dont think its a clear lead on river. And its not clear what our best line is vs a raise.
    • dooleslovs
      dooleslovs
      Diamond
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 484
      You think he could bluff his busted draws vs such sizing OTR? I do not expect such line from 19/15 on such board like ever.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Hmm i kept reading the hand wrong sry abt that. Keptt hinking u lead into him when u always had initiative on turn.

      U lose to 7 value combos.
      U beat A6s-AJs which is 6 combos
      U beat 3 combos of ATo and 3 combos of AJo. I think hr never has all combos of AJo and he rarely has ATo esp given his tightness preflop.

      He nv calls u all the time with worse hands.he has low wtsd of 20.

      Betting here lies with the assumption that he has AJo and ATo. I dont think thats so clear. He also folds on the river a good amt of the time with A6s... the coordination of the river makes it hard for him to hero call. Im def betting on a blank river though. But i think the 4th straigt card makes it a check call.

      I think betting river is juz ultra thin and we are not even certain whether we are actually value betting or value cutting ourselves.