Question 11 of quiz River Spots (1) - IP vs TAG

    • Vip3rNZ
      Vip3rNZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2011 Posts: 340
      Question 11:
      PartyPoker $50 NL Hold'em (short-handed)

      Stacks & Stats
      UTG ($50)
      MP ($50)
      Hero ($50)
      BU ($50)
      SB ($50)
      BB ($50) (22/18/3/16/10/6/51/40/35/28) [VPIP/PFR/AF/crFlop/Turn/River/ftcbetFlop/Turn/River/WTS]

      Preflop: Hero is CO with QcQh
      2 folds, Hero raises $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

      Flop: ($3.25) 4c6hTh (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.20, BB calls $2.20

      Turn: ($7.65) 2h (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $5.10, BB calls $5.10

      River: ($17.85) 7h (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $9.00, BB raises all-in, Hero…?

      Call (3 Points)
      Fold (0 Points)

      Your answer Fold (0 Points)
      You've decided on a 1/2 pot size bet, your opponent raises all-in.

      We could go on and on discussing how often he bluffs and how often he actually plays a line for value.

      Assumptions:
      He plays 55 and JTs as traps.
      He could bluff three busted draws.
      He could play all remaining AJ/KJ combos like that.
      You need (32.20/100) 32.2% Equity.

      You should find a call here.

      I kinda disagree with this, i dont think he's ever bluffing here? hes almost always got 55/77/tt/jt i think? thats a huge shove, and hes only got a 3 AF and hes calling on the flop 50% thats pretty wide? but by the turn hes folding more often, meaning he must be folding any floats or draws here?
      he has no reason to believe he's got implied odds to continue it would look to him that we have a jack or an overpair most of the time here and rarely a set. On the river thats exactly the kinda huge shove someone with a fullhouse here would do, to get max value from a jack which is the hugest part of our range at this point.

      Am i making any sense?
  • 5 replies