[NL2-NL10] 88 against 2 regs

    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Platinum
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,496
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($51.78)
      Hero ($20)
      UTG ($50)
      UTG+1 ($35.79)
      UTG+2 ($20)
      CO ($50)
      BTN ($20)

      Dealt to Hero 8:spade: 8:club:

      fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1

      FLOP ($4.75) 7:diamond: 4:spade: 2:spade:

      Hero bets $2.75, CO folds, BTN calls $2.75

      TURN ($10.25) 7:diamond: 4:spade: 2:spade: 4:club:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $10, Hero folds

      BTN wins $9.79

      1rs open is a 16/12 whit 25% CO 650 hands.

      2nd its 12/7 whit 7% c/c 250 hands.

      Im not sure if SQZ to 10bb is EV+ bcause I cant pay if someone 4bet, and if one pay me IP was really hard to play PF.

      Flop I decided to donk/fold to make fold worst hands.
      Turn: Im not sure if he pay me and float whit OC, but I think that is a good line.
  • 7 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      This is an interesting spot here.
      So I think 3betting here preflop might not be the best option unless villain's tend to fold to cb a lot here.
      We could consider calling here but the main problem is that we are OOP and I would much more love to call if the raiser was from UTG and the cold caller from MP or so since they'd have tighter ranges. If we call here in this spot we will probably have to figure out a way to play postflop, since if we just play for set mining I'm afraid that we won't make a lot of money.

      It's a close shot overall, and I definitely wouldn't mind folding here at all and to me both calling and folding are acceptable, but calling might lead to have some trouble postflop.

      So if we go for a donk on the flop here we have to think of what these guys could have preflop, and what part of their range they are going to fold if we bet, and by calculating this we will see whether or not our bet is profitable.
      I think you should be able to do this and it's a good excercise that will help you think in ranges better.

      You could do it in notepad or wherever you want, and simply post the results (or the whole excercise) here so I can have a look at it.

      You could also press the "Advice the judge to have another look at the thread" button if you have any questions or so and this way I will see more easily that you have question.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Platinum
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,496
      Hi agane

      This is the range of CO



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      And this is the range of the coldcaller



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      In the flop im ahead whit 61% of equiti against the 2nnd coldcaller



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      Maby fold PF have less problems and more EV.
    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Platinum
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,496
      Turn im having the best hand a lot of times:



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      Only have 3.5% times a FH, and 30% times an OP

      Watching this, i think that play ok the hand.
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      So now we are going somewhere.

      There are a couple of think that I disagree with, though.

      So I think that you defined CO's range pretty well here but I don't like the range that you gave BU.
      I think we could definitely give him all the pocket pairs below JJ (including JJ) and let's say that he defend all those broadways since it's CO vs BU.

      Could you explain me why do we only calculate the odds against BU? What about CO? He's still in the hand when we decide to bet.

      Another thing is that we don't really need the equity but the fold equity since we are planning to just bet the flop and then give up on the turn, right?

      Could you calculate the fold equity we need and the fold equity we have according to their ranges and board structure? I'll give you a hint in a spoiler but I suggest you try doing it before looking at the hint.

      So the fold equity you need is calculated when you divide the amount you bet and the whole pot size ( $2.75/($2.75+$4.75) ). You will calculate the fold equity you have when you divide the number of combos they will fold with the total number of combos they have (this should be done for each player individually). For example if they both have 100 combos total, and one of them folds 60 and the other 40, you multiply 0.6*0.4 and you get that you have 24% fold equity.


      Best,
      Plamen
    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Platinum
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,496
      thanks for all your effort

      So, I need a 38% of FE against both to make a profitable donk bet.

      And Im going to put both in a range

      CO open 22% BUT I think that he call me donk whit this range

      77+,44,22,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs,KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,As9s,Ks9s,Qs9s,Js9s,Ts9s,As8s,9s8s,As7s,8s7s,7s6s,A7o

      7%

      So, open 22 and call whit 7%

      Bu re-evaluating her range I think that he cold call whit this range

      JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-AJo, KTo+, QTo+ (13%)

      but he call the donk whit this

      JJ-77, 44, 22, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs

      4%

      So the first player fold 68% of times
      2nd player fold 69% of times

      Both player fold 46% of times, and my bet need a sucsess of 38%.

      Move EV+?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Sorry for my late answer, was a little busy yesterday.

      So you your task pretty well.

      We discovered that our move is going to be +EV if these are their exact range.

      So what could possibly go wrong here? First, of course is that we didn't set their ranges good and they are tighter. For example CO could not have KTo/QTo/QJo here and things get grose.

      So as we can see, our bet is a little bit +EV and if we change their ranges very little it could easily go either way.

      What's the other thing that we have to worry about here - what to do on the turn if get called? So basically if we donk the flop here we are about BE and if we are not planning to bet the turn for some value from FD or 7x I think a better choice will be to just check/fold the flop.

      Overall it's a pretty close situation, and once can argue about different lines being good but to me, the truth is that we can barely make any money in this situation, but we can loose some quite easy.

      So in this hand we started thinking in ranges and did some calculations about fold equity. I think these two are very important to know and you should be orientated to do them more.

      So if there's anything that left misunderstood, or you have some other questions do not hesitate to ask.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Platinum
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,496
      Thanks for all the analysis. Very good assessment.