[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH 33 set, "tough" deicision on the river

    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      MP: $27.42 (109.7 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $26.97 (107.9 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      BB: $25 (100 bb)
      CO: $38.40 (153.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 3 3
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60) A 6 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.01, BB calls $1.01

      Turn: ($3.62) 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.29, BB calls $2.29

      River: ($8.20) 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $5.19, BB raises to $20.95 and is all-in, Hero calls $15.76

      $50.10 pot ($2.50 rake)
      Final Board: A 6 5 3 2
      Hero showed 3 3 and won $47.60 ($22.60 net)
      BB mucked 9 A and lost (-$25 net)

      What do you think about the river play?
      I'm pretty sure that fold is not an option there but I'm very curious about your opnion.:)
      When I got that shove I nearly folded... but then I was thinking, klicked on the time bank and I realized that he isn't reping too much.
      But still... he isn't too aggro overall... nor on the river.
      Anyway... this line doesn't make any sense. What stronger hands could he hold there?

      :spade: A4s? Maybe, but he may fold on the turn most of the time.
      :spade: 66/55? I think he would often 3bet with those hands... Consider that I'm a regular... so why would he CC with those hands OOP?
      :spade: AA? Again... he would 3bet it PF.

      Anyway... what worse hands would he x/r on the river? Now that's the question:D
      If I only add AK to the top of his range, listed above, I have a breakeven call.

      Asztal: A:diamond: 6:heart: 5:spade:  3:club:  2:heart:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        50.00%  50.00%     0.00% { 3d3s }
      MP3        50.00%  50.00%     0.00% { AA, 66-55, AKs, A4s, AKo }
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      ur raise is 3bb so he never has A4o and prolly not K4s.

      I think he mostly reps A4s 54s and some bluffs. I think its rly hard for u to rep any air. No flush draws and everything got there. So its hard to get a hero call vs AJ with a nornal size unless u have some dynamics.

      U can consider betting less than half pot to insuce or get crying calls. If i eere in villains shoes i rarely have sets cos i would raise turn. And i would always fold river vs any normal bet
    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Soooo what would you do in this situation, if you were me?:)
      Call because there will be bluffs often enough in his range?
    • jules97
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Him repping A4s or 54s isn't very credible imo. Dosen't look like it's in his preflop calling range. Looks like he's likely to raise 55 or 66 at the very least on the turn too.

    • serverm07
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130

      I think river sizing is fine and I would use with 4x, sets for value, and for bluffs I would have 78, 5x,6x that I decided to triple barrel with. The fact that mbml posted that he would fold AJ to this bet makes me even happier knowing that my bluffs with those hands are good and are getting good players to fold.

      So then their only bluff catchers are 2 pairs and a4, and since I have more 4x and all of the sets in my range then I like this sizing.

    • serverm07
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      And to answer your question whether to call or fold, I think this depends a lot on the table dynamics and how likely you think he is going to spazz here with a hand that's not A4.

      Personally I would have folded because I have plenty of 4x in my range to call with and I don't think too many people x/jam here as a bluff but I rarely see it at my stakes.

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      I think it is tilt. He realised he is never going to win the pot with call, and tried to bluff out better Ax.
      With this tough decisions, I call if villians play doesnt make sense, and this one doesnt and it is mostly right.
    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Thank you guys!:)
      This hand really divides the people's opinion on the the Hungarian forum too... it's "good" to see the same here:D