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[NL2-NL10] NL 10 AKs

    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      Seat 2 is the button
      Seat 2: Hero ( $10.61 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 44449
      Seat 3: Player3 ( $9.90 USD ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 1.5, Hands: 76
      Seat 1: Player1 ( $10.90 USD ) - VPIP: 42, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 36
      Seat 6: Player6 ( $10.78 USD ) - VPIP: 40, PFR: 12, 3B: 8, AF: 2.9, Hands: 77
      Seat 4: Player4 ( $10.14 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 4.6, Hands: 552
      Seat 5: Player5 ( $11.48 USD ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 14, 3B: 20, AF: 0.0, Hands: 14

      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $10.61 (106.1 bb)
      SB: $9.90 (99 bb)
      CO: $10.90 (109 bb)
      MP: $10.78 (107.8 bb)
      BB: $10.14 (101.4 bb)
      UTG: $11.48 (114.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A K
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, MP raises to $1.20, CO calls $1.10, Hero raises to $4.20, MP calls $3.00, CO folds

      Flop: ($9.75) 9 9 T (2 players)
      MP bets $2.50, Hero folds

      Results:
      $9.75 pot ($0.48 rake)
      Final Board: 9 9 T
      Hero mucked A K and lost (-$4.20 net)
      MP mucked and won $9.27 ($5.07 net)


      Was my preflop play correct? I can't do anything on flop but fold
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey Kevin,

      Preflop: looks good and I like your larger 4-bet given the amount of money in the pot.

      On the flop, without any info on MP it's safer to fold. I doubt he folds any pairs and while he can bluff donk some overs we are not in the greatest shape. However, if we were to shove, assuming 0 FE we need roughly 25% pot odds (we put one 4th of the money).

      What do you think his calling range is there vs your large 4bet?
    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      Without much info I would think he will surely shove pre flop with AA, KK. So I doubt either hand is in his range and they are even less likely considering I have AK.

      I think his calling range is very narrow and maybe only includes QQ, JJ and possibly TT. Maybe AK suited aswell.

      Against QQ, JJ I have 22% equity. If I include AdKd as it is possible for him to play it this way my equity doesn't change very much but if I include TT I only have 17%.

      As you said I doubt I have any fold equity so a fold is the best option.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by 0744379
      Without much info I would think he will surely shove pre flop with AA, KK. So I doubt either hand is in his range and they are even less likely considering I have AK.

      I think his calling range is very narrow and maybe only includes QQ, JJ and possibly TT. Maybe AK suited aswell.

      Against QQ, JJ I have 22% equity. If I include AdKd as it is possible for him to play it this way my equity doesn't change very much but if I include TT I only have 17%.

      As you said I doubt I have any fold equity so a fold is the best option.
      Pretty much, even in our best cases we aren't doing too great.

      A good exercise would be to take a look at how your equity changes just with a backdoor flush (change your hand to AdKh for example). Do you expect it to change much? Before you run the calculation take a guess as to how much it changes.
    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      I expected it to increase very slightly. It increases by about 3%. which against QQ-JJ would make our shove break-even
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by 0744379
      I expected it to increase very slightly. It increases by about 3%. which against QQ-JJ would make our shove break-even
      On average you get about 4% equity with a backdoor flush but depending on the board/their range we usually get at least 3% to a max of 5%.