[NL2-NL10] SSS NL25 - contbet

    • theperni
      theperni
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.08.2007 Posts: 4,346
      Full Tilt Cash game, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit, 9 players

      SB: $32.30
      BB: $17.25
      UTG: $13
      UTG+1: $5
      MP1: $25
      HERO (MP2): $4.15
      MP3: $32.85
      CO: $4.80
      Button: $18.25

      SB posts Small Blind $0.1
      BB posts Big Blind $0.25

      Pre-flop: Q: A: ($0.35)
      UTG folds
      MP1 folds
      HERO raises to $1
      MP3 calls $1
      CO folds
      Button folds
      SB folds
      BB folds

      Flop: 2: K: K: ($2.35)
      HERO bets $1.5
      MP3 raises to $3.5
      HERO folds

      MP3 10.2/5.1/1.3 98hands

      In these situations it's better a direct push?
  • 6 replies
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      u need to look for his fold to flop bet ,wtsd.was good fold, u cant beat a reraise that often from looking-kinda-tight player.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      just shove it directly
      people will be inclined to play back more often on such flop
      so just push to maximize fold equity
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      i disagree (is that even allowed lol)

      reason:
      by betting hero represents strength,pre flop raise and c-bet.but since villain has reraised him - he would have called even a direct push, means he had a pocket pair.and vs a pocket pair its an EV-. plus if villain had A2 he was practically drawing dead...

      let them fire back at u, when u have made ur hand they will pay u good money.

      example:
      AK : missed flop - 66%. hero bet 5bb, villain reraise hero folds. hero lost 9bb.
      that will happen 2 tims (66%)

      on third time, hero c-bet flop 5bb got reraise shove and win 20bb.

      Net: hero lost (66%) 18 bb and won (33%) 20bb = 2bb.

      comments:


      --if u c-bet 4 bb instead of 5 u will win 20bb-16bb= 4bb.
      one big blind can make a LOT of difference.

      when i face a decision i am looking for any reason to fold.most of the time that u win comes from where YOU where the aggressor.

      tell me what u make of it.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      I play NL25 atm and I can say from my experience that people in position like to reraise shortstacks when they make a regular contibet, so I am pretty sure that direct push gives us much more FE than just a contibet. In cases like this I like to follow the rule "stack:pot < 1,5 -----> direct push" which here is the case.

      I believe most of the time we'll be facing a PP in this situation where we still have 6 outs, so it should be profitable to go broke because of all the invested money(if we include also the potential contibet).
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      i disagree (is that even allowed lol)

      nope :P :P :P

      i'll share the math beyond this in the evening, when i have some free time
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      but since villain has reraised him - he would have called even a direct push, means he had a pocket pair.and vs a pocket pair its an EV-. plus if villain had A2 he was practically drawing dead...


      that's wrong. His shove calling range and 3 bet range will be different.
      The first one will be obviously tighter, because there will be no FE included.

      A2 is simply out of his MP3 calling range)

      would say smthing like 22-TT, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+
      so there aren't many hands for him to semi-bluff
      however, the problem is, if you exclude all non-K hands and pockets, you will have smthing like 20% of equity, which leaves you commited to call a reraise (after 2/3 pot cbet).
      So against this kind of opponent (who isn't tricky postflop) cbet less/fold is not the worst option
      However again, push will never be a mistake here, especially, given that such tight/passive player can easily fold 33-44 and even smthing else

      I suggest you not to make things more comlicated) cbetting less makes it way harder to make a decision (a correct one) because you have to think a lot about the ranges
      while push is always easy and profitable

      and AK examples are just so wrong, not pushing AK within 1:1.5 ratio is a huge mistake
      and again, by cbetting less, you will be semi-bluffed out of the pot way more often and will lose money in the long run

      don't make your life harder) but yeah, in some cases it can work
      those are the tight/passive players, where you don't achieve a lot more fold equity by cbetting bigger and can easily fold when reraised

      but try to do it with hands that have less equity
      with AK its almost never wrong to put the money in