[NL2-NL10] NL5 K3s AIPF

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Full Tilt - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP: $12.68
      CO: $5.03
      Hero (BTN): $5.32
      SB: $2.00
      BB: $2.57
      UTG: $1.71

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has K:heart: 3:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BB raises to $0.32, Hero raises to $3.00, BB calls $2.25 and is all-in

      Flop: ($5.16, 2 players) 9:spade: 4:diamond: 2:club:

      Turn: ($5.16, 2 players) A:heart:

      River: ($5.16, 2 players) 9:diamond:

      Hero shows K:heart: 3:heart: (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 58%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)
      BB shows Q:spade: J:club: (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 42%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)
      Hero wins $4.82

      Villain comes to table, first hand calls a 4bet all in 63s vs QQ. This is his second hand. He called the all in, not pushed. Since he's likely to get stacked very quick, and my hand is ahead of his calling range I push knowing he will call with much worse. Should I be pushing a marginal edge like this or not?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Metza,

      Preflop: What's much worse in this case?

      Since we have 0 FE based on your read we still need 45%+ equity.

      Our hand will not do that great against even 30% of all hands:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.36% 40.05% 1.30% Kh3h
      MP3 58.64% 57.34% 1.30% 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o


      In my opinion this is just gambling.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi Metza,

      Preflop: What's much worse in this case?
      6 :diamond: 3 :diamond:

      Originally posted by BogdanPS

      Since we have 0 FE based on your read we still need 45%+ equity.

      Our hand will not do that great against even 30% of all hands:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.36% 40.05% 1.30% Kh3h
      MP3 58.64% 57.34% 1.30% 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o


      In my opinion this is just gambling.
      I don't understand why you give him a range of 30% yet also acknowledge we have no fold equity? He has 3bet/called 6 :diamond: 3 :diamond: the last hand, there is no way he has a 30% range here. I find it very hard to construct a range which includes 63s that we are not at the very least 45% to win against.

      To catch 63s, his range for this needs to be about 70%, against which we are

      BU 50.61% 48.06% 2.55% 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o

      SB 49.39% 46.84% 2.55% Kh3h

      Tbh I did not expect K3s equity to be this low against a range of 70%, thought it would be more like high 50s %, but it's still more than 45%.

      I acknowledge that it is a very high variance play, but here probably we are only very slightly behind to very slightly ahead depending on what his exact range is, and since there is already a decent amount of money in the pot it must be very slightly +EV, yes?

      Plus there have got to be some table image advantages of being seen going all in with K3s when my usual range is going to be far stronger than this.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Metza,

      I just gave you an example.

      If you extend his range to even 70% of hands it looks like this:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 49.86% 47.37% 2.48% Kh3h
      MP3 50.14% 47.66% 2.48% 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 65o


      Again, flipping. Is that really the "great" spot we want to be in?

      So pushing such a tiny edge, if that, against a fish here is not necessary nor super profitable (or even barely profitable after you discount the rake).