Originally posted by BogdanPS
Hi Metza,
Preflop: What's much worse in this case?
6

3
Originally posted by BogdanPS
Since we have 0 FE based on your read we still need 45%+ equity.
Our hand will not do that great against even 30% of all hands:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.36% 40.05% 1.30% Kh3h
MP3 58.64% 57.34% 1.30% 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
In my opinion this is just gambling.
I don't understand why you give him a range of 30% yet also acknowledge we have no fold equity? He has 3bet/called 6

3

the last hand, there is no way he has a 30% range here. I find it very hard to construct a range which includes 63s that we are not at the very least 45% to win against.
To catch 63s, his range for this needs to be about 70%, against which we are
BU 50.61% 48.06% 2.55% 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o
SB 49.39% 46.84% 2.55% Kh3h
Tbh I did not expect K3s equity to be this low against a range of 70%, thought it would be more like high 50s %, but it's still more than 45%.
I acknowledge that it is a very high variance play, but here probably we are only very slightly behind to very slightly ahead depending on what his exact range is, and since there is already a decent amount of money in the pot it must be very slightly +EV, yes?
Plus there have got to be some table image advantages of being seen going all in with K3s when my usual range is going to be far stronger than this.