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[NL20-NL50] 54s push river overbet

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,730
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 100 BB
      SB: 41.52 BB
      BB: 45.96 BB
      UTG: 81.2 BB
      MP: 211.16 BB
      CO: 123.68 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5:heart: 4:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

      Flop: (4.4 BB, 2 players) 6:heart: 5:club: K:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets 3.12 BB, BB calls 3.12 BB

      Turn: (10.64 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: (10.64 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets 94.88 BB and is all-in, BB calls 40.84 BB and is all-in

      BB shows K:diamond: 2:heart: (Two Pair, Kings and Fives) (Pre 52%, Flop 75%, Turn 89%)
      Hero shows 5:heart: 4:heart: (Three of a Kind, Fives) (Pre 48%, Flop 25%, Turn 11%)
      Hero wins 0 BB
      Hero wins 87.72 BB

      460 hands, VPiP 25, PFR 18, 3b 11. FCB 63.

      I assume if he called flop he mostly has Kx because of his high FCB. I give up on turn with equity.

      Is my river push ok? He shows weakness so I suppose he has no nuts, and I push and expect him to call with Kx, because my line looks like bluff.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Grrr! You posted results! :evil:

      Pre and flop are both fine. Your hand can be turned into a bluff on a few favourable runouts and has folding equity on flop already.

      Turn is indeed not too good but if he defends a hand such as 77 on flop, you can consider barreling. What you did up until turn is +EV so if you are unsure of the profitablity of a barrel there, checking is fine, will make money alongside pre and flop.

      River is tough.. I expect him to bet most Kx himself so I would actually be more inclined to go for a very small sizing like 2.5-3.5bb instead of 4x pot because I just don't see what he could call with.

      If you think he is a calling station I would be inclined to bet bigger but I would never think he calls Kx that plays board kicker to call 4x pot. I think you got lucky that he called but you didn't have any read that he could do that, not even a high WTSD stat.