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[NL20-NL50] QQ rivered set vs strong line

    • zumpar
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      villlain, however nitty preflop he is, probably one of the best regs around (after me obv :pokerface: )

      16/14/5 af:4, afq:60

      dont really know what the best line for turn is, obv he reps flushes and sometimes (but rarely i assume, sets)
      maybe i should have just folded the turn, i got an overpair with a FD that isnt even the best one like 50% of the time if i hit

      anyways, otr i got a feeling he cant have flushes there cuz my range really looks like what it is and he has to know that so i see no reason for him to shove the river like that.... i think most of the time he'd bet like 1/2 pot or slightly more vs my weak-ish range

      hence... i called

      iPoker - $0.20 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $8.00
      UTG: $8.20
      MP: $62.21
      CO: $10.36
      Hero (BTN): $20.96
      SB: $20.38

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has Q:heart: Q:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, fold

      Flop: ($1.20, 2 players) T:heart: 5:spade: 8:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, SB calls $1.00

      Turn: ($3.20, 2 players) 4:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.20, SB raises to $5.40, Hero calls $3.20

      River: ($14.00, 2 players) Q:club:
      SB bets $13.48, Hero calls $13.48

      Hero shows Q:heart: Q:spade: (Three of a Kind, Queens) (Pre 80%, Flop 89%, Turn 91%)
      SB shows 7:diamond: 7:club: (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 20%, Flop 11%, Turn 9%)
      Hero wins $38.92
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      What's his preflop 3bet, fold SB to BU steal, his flop fold vs cbet and flop check/raise?

      From this you can tell if he has sets in his turn range (probably not given flop texture) or flushdraws (again not too likely since strong FDs 3bet pre, check/raise flop maybe or are combo draws so check/raise flop) so his hand does not beat QQ => Call turn, call rivers. If you give some of those stats we can look into it more but as a regular he doesn't represent a strong hand here apart from a few flush combinations which show up given some randomness in everyone's play at times, not because of how he constructs his ranges.
    • zumpar
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      i know the river card doesnt really change much vs the range he is representing (maybe beats some of his random sets) but w/o that Q otr i think i would have folded.... huge leak?

      not really a huge sample, 200 hands, but:

      3b: 5% (overall) 3% from SB
      c/r flop: 18%
      F to flop cbet: 33%
      SB f to LP steal: 83%

      (btw im probably gonna spam these forums now since i had a marathon session today, sorry :( )
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Preflop 3bet from SB?

      Anyway, that will be just for you to see it better yourself but what you posted is enough.

      He clearly 3bets preflop more than QQ+, AK. This means that if he adds hands to his raising range those are usually suited cards like 78s, 89s, J9s, etc. This is something you have to find out with some showdowns but apart from the premiums it's safe to assume he has more suited hands in his preflop 3betting range. This means his flush draw combos decrease postflop on that board because some hands that hit that flushdraw 3bets preflop. Now, let's think what he calls in SB: pairs, broadways/suited broadways.

      Well, T8s is on the board, that discounts hands like ATh, A8h, JTh, T9h, 89h, etc. The flushdraws he could have are AQh, AJh, KJh, KQh, QJh most often. Well, you have Qh and if we exclude that from his range, the flushdraws he could have a like AJh, KJh and some lower Axh hands he just flats. Very few combos imo.

      Now, he has a check/raising range on the flop. On this very wet board I assume he check/raises 100% of sets and it makes sense to do so. But sets hit so rarely that 18% makes for a butload of other stuff. What could that other stuff be? Well, usually equity stuff, and flushdraws in his range have great equity. This means those are most likely bluff hands he would check/raise imo. He just call => less likely to have a flush.

      On the turn, he cannot represent any value hands from this point on that beats QQ imo. He doesn't check/raise pair + heart draw because it has showdown value. The only hand that could make sense is 76 in spades, diamonds or clubs, but would that check/raise on 3 to a flush? Haven't seen that too often from NL25 regs, almost ever actually. He is left with the absolute best case scenario of having 3 value combos that beats QQ on the turn. That's absolute tops I'd give him. You need him to have less than 1 bluff combo in his range to call turn and about 1.5 bluffs to call river imo. The Q is not completely irrelevant since it does help when 0.1% of the time he shows up with 55 here but although the board is scary for your hand, his range contains no hands to scare you with.