[NL2-NL10] [NL5 SH] JJ on a low monotone board

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2060619
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (UTG): $8.28 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 4.1, Hands: 19117
      CO: $6.15 - VPIP: 60, PFR: 40, 3B: 33, AF: 0.0, Hands: 5
      BTN: $6.49 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 5.0, Hands: 133
      SB: $5.30 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 18, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
      BB: $8.22 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 20, AF: 4.5, Hands: 61

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with J :heart: J :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.35) 7 :heart: 4 :heart: 6 :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.80, SB raises to $5.15, Hero folds

      We are actually ahead of a NFD, but I'm not sure whether NFD is stacking here.

      We need 41% equity for a call. We seem to have 44% if we add FDs, sets, and 99-QQ, apart from suited heart broadways.

      I think we aren't earning much here, even if a call is +EV.
  • 11 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      hi

      general rule of thumb: don't raise for value if you are not willing to shove vs a 3bet
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by mbml
      hi

      general rule of thumb: don't raise for value if you are not willing to shove vs a 3bet
      Hi,

      How about the cases when we expect weaker to call and stronger to 3bet? Maybe this is not the best example, but consider sth like bottom 2P on a safe board. Top pairs would call us, but if someone 3B, most likely we are up against a better 2P or stronger.

      What about our case? What would your line be here?

      TY
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      I would call here and bet on a safe Turn card for value.

      "How about the cases when we expect weaker to call and stronger to 3bet? Maybe this is not the best example, but consider sth like bottom 2P on a safe board. Top pairs would call us, but if someone 3B, most likely we are up against a better 2P or stronger."

      Which is why I didn't say you have to follow the rule of thumb every single time ;)

      A good example is 3betting the fish with a wide value range, including stuff like TT and KQ and AJ but folding almost everything vs their 4bet - It's pretty safe to assume that they call super wide but only 4bet the nuts preflop.

      In this case, (or in the example provided), sometimes your assumptions are quite far off from what villain actually does. To prevent huge mistakes I just prefer calling.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      I would call here and bet on a safe Turn card for value.

      Okay, but what would change on the turn?

      If the turn is safe, we still might see a large bet or even a shove, and if he checks, he might also check-raise our bet.

      If the turn is not safe it makes thing only worse, because now we are folding even more. Given that we cannot actually improve here, I don't understand why we want to see the next card :f_confused:

      A heart on the turn would be a cooler for everything worse, and only stronger would continue.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      our hand can actually call on most turns.

      1) I don't see why he should just randomly overbet shove on the Turn.
      2) Majority of players do not have a turn check/raising range. If he does so you can snap fold cos it's usually the nuts
      3) "Given that we cannot improve I don't want to see the next card"
      That isn't a good reason to just raise the Flop with something with so much showdown value. Simply put,

      Strong hands = raise for value
      Medium Strength hands = call
      Weak hands = fold or raise as a bluff

      Just follow this and you won't go wrong. Forget about stuff like raising for protection or raising so you don't have to see turn cards.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Oh...Is it kinda wa/wb situation?

      I know that we take a passive line in these, but I never can tell when such situation occurs.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      WA WB means that the board is very dry and that you are either very far ahead or behind in terms of equity (like 90% favourite or 90% underdog) vs most hands.

      in this case a hand like AhKd has a good amount of equity vs your hand.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Okay...so wa/wb would be if our TPTK is raised on a dry board. He's either bluffing, or we have next to nothing equity in the pot. In this case we never play aggressively, but rather call him or fold, depending on the situation.

      So in our case we might be close in equity, so we just try to reach the showdown, because playing aggressively would only push the worse out, yup?

      I never realized that overpairs on flush boards should be played passively! We don't have to protect our hand here, because we are not that far ahead, and may be already far behind, right?

      Now I actually realized that raising big bets with a good pair is almost never a good idea! Because 1P is not that great, and all worse will almost always fold!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      a good example of WA WB is KK on A22r board.

      If opponent has an Ace or a 2, we have only 2 outs to win. If opponent has an underpair like 88, he only has 2 outs to win.

      In both cases, we are either 90% favourite or 90% underdog. With QQ in the same situation, we have the 90% fav/dog thing with most hands. Maybe a hand like KJs could have some backdoor outs and also 4 outs to the King. but that is only a small % of hands.

      Giving another example, what about 88 on A22r? There are many cards like T9s or KJ, hands with 2 overs. Thats about 6 outs which amounts to about 25% equity. This is clearly not a WA/WB situation like the first.

      About your previous post: yes you are getting there.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by mbml
      a good example of WA WB is KK on A22r board.

      If opponent has an Ace or a 2, we have only 2 outs to win. If opponent has an underpair like 88, he only has 2 outs to win.

      In both cases, we are either 90% favourite or 90% underdog. With QQ in the same situation, we have the 90% fav/dog thing with most hands. Maybe a hand like KJs could have some backdoor outs and also 4 outs to the King. but that is only a small % of hands.

      Giving another example, what about 88 on A22r? There are many cards like T9s or KJ, hands with 2 overs. Thats about 6 outs which amounts to about 25% equity. This is clearly not a WA/WB situation like the first.

      About your previous post: yes you are getting there.
      Wow, great stuff!

      So with KK on A22r we play passively, and with 88 aggressively? Because with 88 most hands are either far ahead (ace, higher pockets), or have decent chances to catch an out. Plus "far ahead" ones can also fold!

      That's why we would raise a CB with 88 on such a board, but call with KK! I would never figure it out on my own :f_biggrin:

      Is it close?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      something like that.

      if I were OOP with KK as the PFR I would strongly consider check/calling the flop as an option, whereas I would just bet 88 to take down the dead money in the pot (88 has no better alternative cos c/c is not great with such a vulnerable hand, and c/f doesn't make sense on such a nice board to bluff on)