[NL20-NL50] NL20 KJs vs fish bets

    • NightShadePMC
      NightShadePMC
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 798
      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
      iPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($10.50) 53bb
      UTG+1 ($10.89) 54bb
      CO ($10.90) 55bb
      Her0 (BTN) ($33.80) 169bb
      SB ($7.20) 36bb
      BB ($19.58) 98bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 6 players) Her0 is BTN J:spade: K:spade:
      UTG raises to $0.40, UTG+1 raises to $0.60, 1 fold, Her0 calls $0.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.20

      Flop: K:diamond: 10:diamond: 6:spade: ($2.10, 3 players)
      UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $1.20, Her0 calls $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

      Turn: 7:spade: ($5.70, 3 players)
      UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $4.20, Her0 calls $4.20, UTG folds

      River: 5:heart: ($14.10, 2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $4.89, Her0 calls $4.89

      Villain: Player5 ( $10.89 USD ) - VPIP: 68, PFR: 9, 3B: 11, AF: 4.7, Hands: 53

      No point in raising flop or turn I guess.
      I am not really sure about calling turn, river.
  • 6 replies
    • LgWz
      LgWz
      Black
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 7,641
      I'd fold preflop, he's 3betting 11% but only over 53 hands and it should be way less than that MP vs UTG. Also UTG could still 4bet and you have reverse implied odds with this hand against a midstack.

      As played you can't fold turn picking a fd and calling river should be fine with these odds, but as I said you should have pretty bad reserve implied odds here when you only hit tp.
    • NightShadePMC
      NightShadePMC
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 798
      UTG and MP are weak opponents and the ones left behind are tight. Based on the fact UTG minraised, I think he will rarely 4bet and mostly flat with his speculative hands.

      Shouldn't we want to play KJs IP vs 2 weak opponents? I am guessing I am ahead of their range a decent amount of the time and can hit good on the flop. Although, I understand what you are saying with the reverse implieds when we hit TP.
    • LgWz
      LgWz
      Black
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 7,641
      Originally posted by NightShadePMC
      UTG and MP are weak opponents and the ones left behind are tight. Based on the fact UTG minraised, I think he will rarely 4bet and mostly flat with his speculative hands.

      Shouldn't we want to play KJs IP vs 2 weak opponents? I am guessing I am ahead of their range a decent amount of the time and can hit good on the flop. Although, I understand what you are saying with the reverse implieds when we hit TP.
      We definitely want to. If both opponents were full stacked and UTG raised 3x and MP called I'd always call. I just think that against midstackers we will have a harder time getting away from our hand the times we're beat (I'm worried about MP's min 3betting range, but tbh I don't see this very often so it's possibly way weaker than I think it is...) and we don't have as much room to semibluff.

      I could be wrong though, I'll ask other judges to share their opinion.
    • NightShadePMC
      NightShadePMC
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 798
      Originally posted by LgWz
      Originally posted by NightShadePMC
      UTG and MP are weak opponents and the ones left behind are tight. Based on the fact UTG minraised, I think he will rarely 4bet and mostly flat with his speculative hands.

      Shouldn't we want to play KJs IP vs 2 weak opponents? I am guessing I am ahead of their range a decent amount of the time and can hit good on the flop. Although, I understand what you are saying with the reverse implieds when we hit TP.
      We definitely want to. If both opponents were full stacked and UTG raised 3x and MP called I'd always call. I just think that against midstackers we will have a harder time getting away from our hand the times we're beat (I'm worried about MP's min 3betting range, but tbh I don't see this very often so it's possibly way weaker than I think it is...) and we don't have as much room to semibluff.

      I could be wrong though, I'll ask other judges to share their opinion.
      thanks for going into further detail, so the main problem is their stacksizes giving me less value when I hit good and less space to maneuver postflop
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Hey,

      Few statistics on the turn,

      Assuming UTG doesn't tag along, ~30% equity is required to make the call.

      Against a pure value range of KK+,TT, AKs hero has 26% equity. Hero also has implied odds with his fd. He also will need less equity to make the call if there is a chance UTG tags along.

      Folding pf is a legitimate option. But calling is fine imo. Can't fold flop, can't really fold turn. Villain could definitely be wider than the proposed value range though, this is just a worse case scenario. Either way it's not a fist-pump call and is pretty close to break even.

      River could well be a fold. The turn call was not really made because hero has Kx, but rather because hero has a draw to flush + 2pair. Hero misses his draw and should seriously consider a fold. LgWz is correct that hero is getting great odds to call and a call can never be that bad ---> Villain would need to have a hand that wasn't in the value range we assigned him 20% of the time for a break even call. It's really difficult to see villain playing something like JQ or a FD this way on the river when he is betting like 1/3rd pot.

      Not to mention, if hero is potentially going to stack off unimproved on every river it technically means the price he is getting on the turn is not as good as the one direct pot odds offers.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by NightShadePMC
      so the main problem is their stacksizes giving me less value when I hit good and less space to maneuver postflop
      Basically when stacks are shallow it matters a lot less that your hand is suited. KJs will play a lot closer to KJo. (KJo obviously has kicker issues).

      When the stacks are deeper having those extra implied odds with KJs compared to KJo makes a bigger difference.