[NL20-NL50] NL50 JTs c/r + barrel turn

    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Boss, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $51.01 (102 bb)
      SB: $116.52 (233 bb)
      Hero (BB): $55.23 (110.5 bb)
      CO: $52.25 (104.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J T
      CO folds, BTN raises to $1.12, SB folds, Hero calls $0.62

      Flop: ($2.49) Q 6 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.75, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $4.25

      Turn: ($14.49) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $9, BTN calls $9

      River: ($32.49) T (2 players)

      Villain 7.2k hands
      20/18/7.5%
      open BU 49%
      fold to 3bet 73% (72% BU)
      4bet range BU 4.8%
      cbet flop 86%
      fold to cbet flop 52%
      cbet turn 45%
      WTSD 27%
      WWSF 49%

      I don't have any specific note that can help in this spot. I know this villain is decent and is capable of 3barrel bluffs in 3bet pot with no equity. I have no reason to believe he is call happy.

      The plan flop was to exploit his high cbet with wide range + decent fold % vs raise. My plan was to barrel turn in diamons, 9, K and A. Honestly I didn't really plan ahead for river if called turn, I guess in this case he can still have Qx and of course flushes. Do you consider bluffing river?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think Flop play is fine and Turn barrel is certainly standard.

      What's your image? Do you c/r Flops a lot? If you have a tighter image you can expect him to fold QX on the Turn quite often. That weights his river range towards hands with clubs in them.

      I don't see him having too many AX hands in his range, so his range on the River is mostly QX (?), flushes, some slowplayed sets, 2pairs like AQ.

      I'm leaning more towards a fold unless you think his Turn continuation range is very wide, including a ton of non-flushes.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      I think Flop play is fine and Turn barrel is certainly standard.

      What's your image? Do you c/r Flops a lot? If you have a tighter image you can expect him to fold QX on the Turn quite often. That weights his river range towards hands with clubs in them.

      I don't see him having too many AX hands in his range, so his range on the River is mostly QX (?), flushes, some slowplayed sets, 2pairs like AQ.

      I'm leaning more towards a fold unless you think his Turn continuation range is very wide, including a ton of non-flushes.
      Yeah, my image is okay, i don't c/r much. I expect him to fold Qx turn, at least some times.

      River do you think he can have baby flushes that will fold to a jam?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Not counting on it. Ppl hate folding flushes