[NL2-NL10] [NL2 SH] 2nd pair value bet

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2062229
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $12.50 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 19, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 54
      Hero (UTG): $11.35 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 4.0, Hands: 19547
      MP: $5.82 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 104
      CO: $6.33 - VPIP: 72, PFR: 38, 3B: 33, AF: 0.8, Hands: 29
      BTN: $12.50 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 3, 3B: 4, AF: 1.0, Hands: 68
      SB: $13.24 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 1, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 74

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q :club: Q :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.17, 1 fold, CO calls $0.17, 3 folds

      Flop: ($0.41) 9 :club: A :diamond: T :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.25, CO calls $0.25

      Turn: ($0.91) 3 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55

      River: ($2.01) T :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Flop/turn I'm extracting value from his draws, and maybe even from worse pairs, given that he's a fish.

      On the river I don't think I can make anything better fold against a fish, so I just check. If he bets, I'm more inclined to fold, because a ten and an ace are all in his range.
  • 13 replies
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Either this or cf turn cf river considering he does have a ton of aces and Ad is on the board. If the K was the over i would like it lot more, we also have the qd.

      Against range like this
      AA,A2s+,T2s+,98s,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Kd9d,Qd9d,Jd9d,Kd8d,Qd8d,Jd8d,Kd7d,Qd7d,Jd7d,9d7d,8d7d,Kd6d,Qd6d,Jd6d,9d6d,8d6d,7d6d,Kd5d,Qd5d,Jd5d,7d5d,6d5d,Kd4d,Qd4d,6d4d,5d4d,Kd3d,Qd3d,Kd2d,Qd2d,A2o+,T8o+,97o+

      We have 35% eq and no vbet
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi,

      I dont understand why u are betting the Turn. Turn is definitely a check, and we can either c/c or c/f. I think we still beat a lot of draws so I think c/c Turn is fine.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Either this or cf turn cf river considering he does have a ton of aces and Ad is on the board. If the K was the over i would like it lot more, we also have the qd.

      Against range like this
      AA,A2s+,T2s+,98s,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Kd9d,Qd9d,Jd9d,Kd8d,Qd8d,Jd8d,Kd7d,Qd7d,Jd7d,9d7d,8d7d,Kd6d,Qd6d,Jd6d,9d6d,8d6d,7d6d,Kd5d,Qd5d,Jd5d,7d5d,6d5d,Kd4d,Qd4d,6d4d,5d4d,Kd3d,Qd3d,Kd2d,Qd2d,A2o+,T8o+,97o+

      We have 35% eq and no vbet
      So are you saying that we do not even CB? Because your equity calculation is for the flop.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      • 13.01.2013, 03:15
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by Th334: 13.01.2013 03:15.
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi,

      I dont understand why u are betting the Turn. Turn is definitely a check, and we can either c/c or c/f. I think we still beat a lot of draws so I think c/c Turn is fine.
      I betted the turn because I though that there are many possible draws that might call us.

      Are you checking the turn, because we don't want to inflate the pot, and we have no FE even against TPNK against a fish?

      So I would imagine that we can bet the turn again against a tight guy, because we have some extra value in the form of FE.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      there are definitely situations where you can value betting 2 streets with 2nd pair. Those situations mostly involve villain being stubborn with TX and calling turn too with a ton of draws.

      While this flop may seem like one of those spots, note that your QQ blocks not only Qd and Qc (reducing the number of flush draws greatly), it also blocks QJ (straight draws). Anyway generally I wouldn't barrel turn with 2nd pair in 95% of situations, it requires a specific read that villain calls turn light and that board is really draw heavy.

      I don't like it so much on AXX boards, I think people just play so many more AX hands than other hands preflop. So if you had 99 on Jc8s5s board and turn brings the 6c and we know villain never folds 8X on the turn, then this could potentially be a value bet on the turn.

      but given everything i mentioned I think it just makes more sense to c/c the turn.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      I'm not sure why you are talking about fold equity. We have decent showdown value, and people are not folding top pair on the turn most of the time. So forget about FE, our hand is good enough to showdown, and we can rarely bluff out better hands.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Okay, thanks!

      mbml, how about same board with a K instead on an A?

      Is it still a bad value bet, because we still block many draws? Or it gets pretty close, because he has way less K in his range than A.

      About him calling, I expect fishes (and he's labeled as one) to call down with any strong draws and very often with a 2nd pair.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      I think it becomes more of a bet then. But this guy seems really loose, I won't be surprised to see him have all sorts of KX hands preflop too.

      I think you could have thin value, maybe you are ahead of his calling range 55-60% of the time with QQ on a KTX board. Good thing about betting though is that this guy seems really passive so if you check, you are giving a free card a lot, whereas vs a more aggro opponent he would just bet his draws when checked to.

      I'm kind of going back and forth a little and it may be a little confusing, but I think ATX board is slightly better for a turn c/c esp when you have Qc and Qd. On KTX and if you don't have the 2 Q flush blockers I think it could be closer to a turn value bet.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Btw why cc ?

      If you somewhat agree with the range i gave him it's pretty clear he is ahead of us already, and he will most likely bet stronger part of is range, and he is passive.

      I doubt we even have that 25% eq if he bets half pot.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Btw why cc ?

      If you somewhat agree with the range i gave him it's pretty clear he is ahead of us already, and he will most likely bet stronger part of is range, and he is passive.

      I doubt we even have that 25% eq if he bets half pot.
      I think he won't bet stronger part of his range, because it's mostly TPNK hands, and we are the UTG PFA.

      I think he will semi-bluff his draws, but rather check back weak aces most of the time to see the showdown.

      F.e. on the showdown he showed me sth like A6, and I think A6 is checking back here all day long.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      1) you must include some clubs in his range. It is very likely that a loose fish is capable of floating flop with backdoor flush draws
      2) the range you put above is his likely calling range. I think he does check back weak AX and TX a lot, so we are mostly bluff catching vs draws.

      I think c/f may also be an option given how passive he is. but probably c/c is fine since we beat a lot. We need ~35% equity to c/c profitably on the turn and I think we should have that.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      • 13.01.2013, 04:10
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by Th334: 13.01.2013 04:10.
      35% for a call :f_confused:

      Only if we are going to call his overbets, which we are not.

      Otherwise it's 25-30%
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      We need more equity to compensare for future srreet aggression. Rmb that the hand doesnr end when we call the turn. Your numbers are right if villain never bets the river. Or he onlt bets when he has u beat. That doesnt happen in real life.