[NL20-NL50] 50fr AJ SB

    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $115.07 (230.1 bb)
      UTG+1: $52.91 (105.8 bb)
      UTG+2: $44.86 (89.7 bb)
      MP1: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      MP2: $42.72 (85.4 bb)
      MP3: $13.14 (26.3 bb)
      CO: $65.42 (130.8 bb)
      BTN: $59.38 (118.8 bb)
      Hero (SB): $88.66 (177.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A J
      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB folds, UTG+2 calls $2

      Flop: ($5.50) 2 6 A (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, UTG+2 calls $3

      Turn: ($11.50) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, UTG+2 calls $6

      River: ($23.50) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.55, UTG+2 raises to $11.10, Hero folds

      Results:
      $34.60 pot ($1.90 rake)
      Final Board: 2 6 A 8 K
      UTG+2 mucked and won $32.70 ($15.65 net)
      Hero mucked A J and lost (-$17.05 net)

      VPIP: 50, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 2,1, Hands: 132

      Another saturday fish.
      On flop I bet not too big because if he has a heart he's gonna call anyway.
      I continue for value.

      On river I block/bet / thin value bet mostly for other Ax, as I don't see much else following me.
      His raise, even though is a min-raise, doesn't really tell me anything good at all, and I fold.
      He could have AK, plenty of two pairs, even a flush afaik.
      I can't see what weaker hand raises me here.

      Also most of his AF is on flop, and is 1 on river, so...
  • 5 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Hey Atrocious Nightmare,

      Preflop/Flop/Turn looks ok.

      Not sure your reasoning on the river is synonymous with your play though. You don't expect much worse to be calling except weak Ax so you are "block-betting".

      So if he's rarely (albeit sometimes) calling with worse, especially since you block Ax, wouldn't a check call line work best on this river? As you said you don't expect him to be folding a heart on flop/turn and given his wide pf range there must be a ton of busted hearts in his range by this river, right?

      The only reason you might not do this is if you felt his river AF was so low that he'd never bluff. Not sure if you have enough info to assume so at this stage though.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Hey Atrocious Nightmare,

      Preflop/Flop/Turn looks ok.

      Not sure your reasoning on the river is synonymous with your play though. You don't expect much worse to be calling except weak Ax so you are "block-betting".

      So if he's rarely (albeit sometimes) calling with worse, especially since you block Ax, wouldn't a check call line work best on this river? As you said you don't expect him to be folding a heart on flop/turn and given his wide pf range there must be a ton of busted hearts in his range by this river, right?

      The only reason you might not do this is if you felt his river AF was so low that he'd never bluff. Not sure if you have enough info to assume so at this stage though.
      Kind of the opposite.
      I do expect him to bluff (it's basically almost a standard move on italian poker rooms from fish, no joke), but I'm not too happy calling if he does it on such a river size, and on a board that I don't really crush, there's many things that still beat me.
      So, since the chance of a bluff raise is MUCH lower than a bluff bet, the chances of a lower hand calling me increases with a blockbet due to it being smaller, and me not wanting to call so much a big bluff bet from him, I thought a block would be a good compromise.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by AtrociousNightmare

      I do expect him to bluff (it's basically almost a standard move on italian poker rooms from fish, no joke), but I'm not too happy calling if he does it on such a river size, and on a board that I don't really crush, there's many things that still beat me.

      So, since the chance of a bluff raise is MUCH lower than a bluff bet, the chances of a lower hand calling me increases with a blockbet due to it being smaller, and me not wanting to call so much a big bluff bet from him, I thought a block would be a good compromise.
      So if we pick a random bluff size he might make, say $15 into a pot of $23.50, you'd need to have the best hand 28% of the time to make the call. I'm not sure it's relevant whether you "crush the board" or not, you are only looking to bluff-catch, not defeat villain's value range.

      So long as you felt villain was bluffing in the ratio 28:72 (bluffs:value) you'd break even on your call. If you think he is bluffing more often than 28% of the time you will show a profit here. What do you think? How often does villain have value here compared to bluffs when he bets?

      Also one other thing to consider. Your value bet needs to be up against a worse hand >50% of the time when called. If more than 50% of the time when you get called you are running into your opponents value range, you are going to make a loss.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Originally posted by AtrociousNightmare

      I do expect him to bluff (it's basically almost a standard move on italian poker rooms from fish, no joke), but I'm not too happy calling if he does it on such a river size, and on a board that I don't really crush, there's many things that still beat me.

      So, since the chance of a bluff raise is MUCH lower than a bluff bet, the chances of a lower hand calling me increases with a blockbet due to it being smaller, and me not wanting to call so much a big bluff bet from him, I thought a block would be a good compromise.
      So if we pick a random bluff size he might make, say $15 into a pot of $23.50, you'd need to have the best hand 28% of the time to make the call. I'm not sure it's relevant whether you "crush the board" or not, you are only looking to bluff-catch, not defeat villain's value range.
      This is so important to understand, thx!

      Originally posted by w34z3l
      So long as you felt villain was bluffing in the ratio 28:72 (bluffs:value) you'd break even on your call. If you think he is bluffing more often than 28% of the time you will show a profit here. What do you think? How often does villain have value here compared to bluffs when he bets?
      I'd say it's a close call.

      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Also one other thing to consider. Your value bet needs to be up against a worse hand >50% of the time when called. If more than 50% of the time when you get called you are running into your opponents value range, you are going to make a loss.
      Precious!

      Alright you convinced me.
      XC is the best option.
      I just need to figure out if calling or not depending on his size.
      Thx!
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by AtrociousNightmare
      I just need to figure out if calling or not depending on his size.
      Thx!
      Yup, the larger his bet the more often you need to have the best hand to make the call; and therefore the more often he needs to be bluffing compared to value-betting.

      Of course there is always the chance the river goes check-check too.