[NL2-NL10] NL5 Zoom - AQs OOP vs. Min-bet

    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2063203
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      BTN: $2.31
      Hero (SB): $5.02
      BB: $2.87
      UTG: $5.30
      MP: $8.88
      CO: $5.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Q :spade: A :spade:
      1 fold, MP raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, MP calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.85) J :club: 2 :spade: 3 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, MP calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.85) J :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP checks

      River: ($1.85) 8 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

      PF: Bet 3 x raise + 2BB since I assume I can get called from worse broadway hands.

      F: I bet to get 44-TT to fold, not sure if I should expect this from a player who min-bet called 3-bet pre-flop. However, I also have over-cards and a backdoor straight and flush draw. And my hand looks very strong since I 3-bet pre-flop. Bet slightly more than half pot so I can make my bluff as profitable as possible.

      T: I think J is a good part of his range so I give up.

      R: However, since he bets so small, I think I can win with A-high a lot of the time here.
  • 5 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Hey Raknyo,

      Preflop: We should be very careful here 3betting AQs. Typically it is not a value bet vs an MP open, but it might be ok in this instance given MP min-raises.

      Flop: In order to evaluate your cbet here it would be useful to know a few statistics on villain, perhaps VPIP/PFR/Ft3bet so we can establish what kind of range he is reaching the flop with.

      Cbetting is ok but it's debatable if you are actually folding out any better hands. Against many villain's check/call or even check/fold may be better options here.

      Turn: As played I think you made a good decision to not barrel the turn. Usually paired boards are not good to barrel because it reduces the amount of value combinations you can represent.
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Cbetting is ok but it's debatable if you are actually folding out any better hands. Against many villain's check/call or even check/fold may be better options here.
      Can you please explain it in details? One of the reason for betting is collecting dead money in the pot, it means, if opponent gives up his equity of 6 outs, say T9, it's good for us. This way also we prevent re-bluffs, since hardly can we play calldown in this spot. Can we do some math here to show it's +EV cbet vs unknown?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by GreenPiece
      if opponent gives up his equity of 6 outs, say T9, it's good for us. This way also we prevent re-bluffs, since hardly can we play calldown in this spot.
      What you are saying is true in practice. Theoretically it's actually better for us if we check, our opponent bluffs with T9 and we call. If we knew our opponent might take a stab at the flop and then give up unimproved we actually make more money this way, since we get to put in another bet with 75% or so equity instead of simply taking down the pot.

      Also if villain has a very high Ft3bet and he calls our 3bet, we may actually be burning money by cbetting if he is never folding and always has our AQ beat so theoretically we should check/fold. (If this is the case it's likely we should not have even been 3betting preflop).

      Originally posted by GreenPiece
      .Can we do some math here to show it's +EV cbet vs unknown?
      We certainly can. But let's wait and see if OP gets back to us with a few statistics which will increase the accuracy of our estimates. At this stage we really do not have enough information to do a hand analysis justice.
    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      The villain was unknown, I have revised some c-betting topics today, so will have a revised look at this hand.

      EV(BET) = NEGATIVE
      • Worse hands which call - only possibly float from QK or AT.
      • Better hands which fold - not sure we can expect any, 44-TT may be tempted to call one street.
      Overall, I don't think we get the villain to fold enough of the time to get a profitable bluff here.

      EV(CHECK/FOLD) = NEUTRAL
      We give up, may loose a bit of value against worse but EV of near 0.

      EV(CHECK/CALL) = POSITIVE
      Like you said, we could check/call here hoping to get value from worse hands and even if we're against a pair, there are a few turns we could donk or check/raise. Or if our opponent bets once with 44-TT then checks behind turn, we can profitably bluff the river.

      EV(CHECK/RAISE) = POSITIVE
      If we assume that villain bets 44-TT here but we could get these hands to fold with a check-raise and possibly the weaker Jx hands. If called, we have a lot of good turn cards to c-bet.

      Could check/raising here we good, we can rep a strong range?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Raknyo
      Could check/raising here we good, we can rep a strong range?
      Yeah, potentially.

      The real problem with this hand is utter lack of information about your opponent and his tendencies. We can't say for certain what he is going to do with different parts of his range; so why would we want to stick a huge amount of our stack in vs an unknown in a potentially -EV situation?

      It makes sense to take lower variance lines until we know more about villains tendencies. It's very easy to fast-fold in zoom, people don't open a lot in MP, and they don't call 3bets often either. His range might be JJ+ in this spot in which case a check-raise is pretty awful (and so is a preflop 3bet).

      The problems really start preflop. You are making a 4x 3bet vs an MP open and assuming he is going to call with worse broadways. This might be true, it might not. If he's responding tightly to 3bets it's a mistake to value 3bet AQs here.

      As for him floating QK,AT. That might seem like a good scenario for us because he is calling with worse. In practice it probably isn't, because we can't continue on later streets if he bluffs. If you bet flop and check turn your range looks very weak. If you check/call flop and then check turn you can still have a bunch of slowplays in your range, and the pressure is on your opponent to fire a second barrel, not on you.

      I probably wouldn't cbet here. I'd check/fold, or maybe check/call once and give up unimproved.