[NL20-NL50] AQ against raise turn

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 334.92 BB
      Hero (SB): 381.88 BB
      BB: 107.76 BB
      UTG: 158.84 BB
      MP: 194.4 BB
      CO: 120.84 BB

      Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:spade: A:club:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 8:heart: 9:spade: Q:diamond:
      Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

      Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) 4:club:
      Hero bets 9.96 BB, BB raises to 28.76 BB, Hero calls 18.8 BB

      River: (71.52 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:
      Hero checks, BB bets 72 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 72 BB



      2.5k hands VpiP 24 PFR 16 3bet 7, FCB 42, raise cbet flop 20% (14/69 times), turn 24% raise cbet


      Usually I would fold turn without much thinking against unknown, but because his raise cbet is so high I called. Once I call turn I have to call river, right ?

      Do you guys know what is the probability of having nuts on this board? He could have 88 3 combos, 99 1 combo. TJs 4 combos, 89s 2 combos. I dont think he raises turn with A9 so I dont count it. I think he could often have gutshot here, AJ, AT, KJs, KTs, 67s, he could even try to float flop and then desided to bluff me turn because I am barreling a lot.

      What I want to find out is how often he has nuts here, because I think 24% (each 4 times) raise cbet is too large. So if he has nuts less than around 12% than I think it is profitable to call down?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      What do you think 3bets pre in his range? Is he polarised/depolarised? I'm asking because you can possibly discount made hands or bluffs. If you've seen him 3bet stuff like KJo, QJo, it's not beyond belief he can 3bet JT some of the time which is one of the hands that make sense in his part.

      Against an aggressive regular I don't mind call and call here if he's actually been playing back at you. It's a spot where the single most correct answer is it depends. You have a strong hand given his range imo but at the same time, he is showing very high agresssion and can have a reasonable amount of better hands than you. Think of some other stuff: how often would he just call flop with a value hand? How often would he leave slightly over pot on river with a value hand? All these things that might seem small can help you decide. When he value raises/bets does he easily ship in stacks? In that case, this might be a tell for giving you worse pot odds with a bluff so you can discount value hands.

      Another consideration: How often do you double barrel that texture? Can he simply try to bluff you off another bluff?
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16

      Another consideration: How often do you double barrel that texture? Can he simply try to bluff you off another bluff?
      I am bluff barreling turn if I see that villian calls flop often but folds turn, or if the scare cards comes on turn then I barrel turn and river.
      If I get raised on flop or turn I continue only with sets, straights, flushes... so I would often fold even two top pairs if villian doesnt raise often. So if we have a lot of hands played together, I think he could see my high fold to raise after cbet and use it.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      If you think he is likely to bluff you on flop instead of turn this means he is more unlikely to bluff the turn => he is more likely to value raise the turn.

      This is not definitive because some people don't notice it and just play their hand but given this extra info you gave, turn might be a fold even on that blank. If you really aren't sure of whether he bluffs more on flop or turn, the way to be 'safe' is to play your own range. How often do you barrel and with what range? To not be exploited you need to NOT fold here about 50% of the time. Is AQ in the top 50% of your range?

      LE: @50% it's not a rule. You basically have to continue with the same frequency he needs his bet to work if he were bluffing. He is betting almost 29bb into a 24bb pot so he needs it to work >50%. Therefore, you need to continue about the same amount for you to be unexploitable.