[NL2-NL10] NL5SH AKs - overplayed?

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Flop: I think villains donking range is predominantly Kx but it could be anything given his stats. Plan to just raise and get it in here. He seems bad enough. , although it felt a little overplayed afterwards. Maybe I should call since he is probably not over betting with draws so I can call flop and maybe raise turn and play for stacks there depending on what card comes.

      I think its reasonable to think he gets it in here with the following range (probably worse but this is a conservative estimate)


      Board: 8:heart: 3:diamond: K:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    43.17%  30.91%  12.26% { AKs }
      BB     56.83%  44.57%  12.26% { AA, 88, 33, KhKs, KhKc, KsKc, KQs, AhKh, AsKs, AcKc, KQo, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AsKc, AcKh, AcKs }



      If villain 4b's all-in I think I would be doing okay in terms of pot odds wouldn't I?

      5.67/3.35 = 1.69 : 1 = 1/(1+1.69) x 100 = equity required to make call profitable = 37%

      Cheers

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $11.96 59/37/2/27/22/29 hands - seems pretty LP
      UTG: $11.29
      Hero (CO): $5.00
      BTN: $5.00
      SB: $5.00

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, fold, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 8:heart: 3:diamond: K:diamond:
      BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, fold

      Hero wins $1.27
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Muel,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Considering the type of player we have and the board texture I am more than fine to raise AK for value here versus his overbet donk.

      Fish rarely overbet donk like this the nuts (or for example overbet ck/raise flops). It's usually a hand they want more protection with like 8x, Kx, TT or draws that they want FE with. In some cases, like here it's pure bluffs.

      I would definitely add more Kx hands in the range you equilabed and possibly even more draws.

      If we had more history and saw this regularly from him we can also call and call down or raise turn. But without info I'm raising here every time.
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      Hello!


      I agree with raising the flop for value. But what if villain 3-bets? Hand sample is tiny, but he does not seem very aggressive.

      Without more info, I`m inclined to think, that only worse hands will call our raise and better will 3-bet.

      However, villain 3-betting in this spot is not very likely, as he over-donked and that`s not the line villain would take with monsters.