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[NL2-NL10] TPTK on dry board IP w/o initiative

    • Deomedes
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $10.00
      BB: $11.16
      UTG: $11.18
      MP: $15.01
      CO: $10.00
      Hero (BTN): $37.78

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A:spade: J:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.40, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.40, fold, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: ($1.25, 3 players) 6:club: 3:heart: J:spade:
      BB checks, UTG bets $0.89, Hero calls $0.89, fold

      Turn: ($3.03, 2 players) 5:spade:
      UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      River: ($6.03, 2 players) 9:diamond:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.00, fold

      Hero wins $5.73

      Villain open raises from MP 9/29 times (31%)
      Folds to 3bet 20/23 times (87%)
      So if i 3bet i turn my hand into a bluff

      Cbets on the Flop 13/29 times (45%)
      Raising on that flop is again a bluff

      Cbets on the Turn 6/9 times (67%)
      So he cbets flop when strong n continues on the turn.
      So i call.

      He checks to me so i think that my hand is the best
      I bet around 35% of the pot thinking that i can get called by Jx, occasionally TT and that sometimes on a dry board like that he might go for the ch-call on the river with overpairs (no reads on the last one) .

      His WTSD/W$SD is 35%/50%

      My questions:
      Is Preflop Cold Calling fine?
      Would it be advisable if he bet 3/4of the pot or 1/2pot on the river to call?
      What about my sizing on the river?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Overall VPIP/PFR? I think that will give us a good idea of what type of player he is.

      Anyway I think AJ seems strong enough to call vs such a wide UTG range, despite it being 4BB.

      Flop: I don't really see any point in having a raising range here on this dry board. With my monsters I always call so technically I shouldn't have a raising range with my air too (for balance).

      Turn: Call again, AJ is way too strong vs his turn betting range.

      River: I think his range is wide enough for him to have enough JTs QJs KJ type of hands which can c/c the river. I expect him to bet QQ+ a lot of the time so I think our hand is strong enough to value bet the river.

      I would just half pot the river, no need to underbet the pot. And I think vs a 3rd barrel it just boils down to his river barreling frequencies. Leaning more towards a fold cos only draws which missed are Spades and 4X.