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[NL2-NL10] Trips vs river checkraise against fish

    • riskcore
      Joined: 07.07.2011 Posts: 81
      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $17.13 (171.3 bb)
      MP: $10 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $12.85 (128.5 bb)
      BTN: $10.03 (100.3 bb)
      SB: $13.09 (130.9 bb)
      BB: $10.86 (108.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K 9
      UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.15

      Flop: ($0.90) 9 9 T (3 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.55, BTN folds, UTG calls $0.55

      Turn: ($2) 3 (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.45, UTG calls $1.45

      River: ($4.90) J (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $3.80, UTG raises to $14.88, Hero calls $6.80 and is all-in

      $26.10 pot ($1.30 rake)
      Final Board: 9 9 T 3 J
      UTG showed 7 8 and won $24.80 ($11.95 net)
      Hero showed K 9 and lost (-$12.85 net)

      UTG was a 63/17 over 63 hands capable of bluffing, but mostly quite passive 29% Fold to cbet, 26%AG and 33% WTSD, over quite a small sample.

      pretty sure he wouldnt bluff on the river like this, but I also thought he could potentially valuebet worse. am i crazy?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: Not good. Way too small, and you encourage others to 3bet or come along. I prefer raising to 50c and playing HU vs the fish.

      Flop: Just bomb it, bet like 75% pot or more.

      I will just 3barrel and bet large on all streets. I think you can probably ship it on the river if you bet larger on every street like I suggested.

      As played I'm not sure how often he plays 9X in this way. You can probably fold Q9 and 98. With K9 it's tough and with A9 I'm probably not folding. 78, J9, QJ are the hands which improved. I don't think he calls twice with KQ. I'm quite worried that his raise size is super huge. We get like 26% pot odds and we just need to beat some combos of 9X to be able to call here.

      The river decision is so dependent on how loose villain is preflop. Does he have 87o? That would make calling way worse. Please provide the minimum reads of VPIP and PFR in the future.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 71.28% 68.09% 3.19% TT, 33, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s+, 87s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 97o+, 87o
      MP3 28.72% 25.53% 3.19% Kh9h

      If I include 78 and 79 and 89 This looks like a close call
    • riskcore
      Joined: 07.07.2011 Posts: 81
      thought i was raising, didnt notice a limper,I had isolated this opponent 3 times before mostly cbetting once and folding
      , thx for the reply, yeah he was definately loose enough to have the smaller offsuit connectors