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[NL20-NL50] KQhvs jam Turn with 2td nuts vs weak opponent

    • vengeance77
      Joined: 18.04.2010 Posts: 10,010
      [converted_hand][hand_history]Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $33.16 (165.8 bb)
      BB: $20 (100 bb)
      Hero (MP): $20 (100 bb)
      CO: $18.52 (92.6 bb)
      BTN: $27.49 (137.5 bb) 58/20, CCIP 53, FCB F/T 53/38, RCB IP F/T 11/11, Agg% F/T 26/28, WTSD 17, W$WSF 48 239hands

      Preflop: Hero is MP with Q:heart: K:heart:
      Hero raises to $0.60, CO folds, BTN calls $0.60, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.50) 9:diamond: T:diamond: J:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.10, BTN calls $1.10

      Turn: ($3.70) K:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.80, BTN raises to $25.79 and is all-in, Hero ?

  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Flop: I will strongly consider c/r flop if he likes to bet when checked to.
      Turn: Hmm this is tricky spot, I expect him to have AQ a decent amount. But I think we chop enough of the time.

      Pot odds = ~15/40 = 37.5%

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.32% 0.00% 41.32% KhQh
      MP3 58.68% 17.36% 41.32% AQs, KQs, Q2s+, AQo, KQo, Q8o+

      We should call here, even though we are only calling to chop. He just has a non AQ straight way more often than he has the nuts.
    • vengeance77
      Joined: 18.04.2010 Posts: 10,010
      I paid.