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[NL20-NL50] AQ against push midstack

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 65.92 BB
      SB: 613.84 BB
      BB: 32 BB
      UTG: 104.24 BB
      Hero (MP): 516.28 BB
      CO: 272.16 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:club: Q:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 65.92 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero calls 62.92 BB

      Flop: (133.24 BB, 2 players) 3:club: 8:spade: J:heart:

      Turn: (133.24 BB, 2 players) K:spade:

      River: (133.24 BB, 2 players) J:club:

      Hero shows A:club: Q:heart: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 45%, Flop 28%, Turn 23%)
      BTN shows 7:spade: 7:club: (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens) (Pre 55%, Flop 72%, Turn 77%)
      BTN wins 126.6 BB

      78 hands, VPiP 35, PFR 24, 3bet 17.

      I stacked him few hands before in a 3bet pot where he was bluffing iwth 68s 3 barreling. Then he started pushing preflop few times in a row and this time I called.

      I think it was a bad call, because against any PP I am behind plus rake. So I would need him to also push with KQ, AJ, AT ...
      Is it different with AK?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi mlatasrb,

      This is a spot where we need to run a few equilab samples.

      First, we know that we need to call 62.92 to win 126.6 (after rake) which means we need roughly 50% equity here.

      So as you can see you need villain to start overbet shoving like this a really wide range to be profitable.

      He needs to have a lot of KJ/QT type hand and even then we are not a huge favorite.

      Given we have invested only 3 BB this is a marginal spot at best (higher variance, gambly). Also these type of players (fishy/mid stackers) will have a higher chance to leave once they double up.

      With AKo it becomes closer and I'd probably be more inclined to call.

      I do recommend running some EV calculations for various PFR %s to really see how we are doing. You may be surprised.