[NL20-NL50] NL50 88 river size

    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      SB: $66.39 (132.8 bb)
      BB: $36.03 (72.1 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $52.87 (105.7 bb)
      MP: $12.24 (24.5 bb)
      CO: $106.66 (213.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8 8
      Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($4.75) 8 Q A (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, BB folds

      Turn: ($11.75) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

      River: ($27.75) 2 (2 players)

      Villain 3.5k hands
      22/18/6.3%
      call open BU 13%
      fold to cbet flop 44%
      WTSD 28%

      BB donk 46/23

      How much do you bet river?
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Given positions, I think villain has all combos of AQ, and he has decent number of flushes. How wide are you opening from UTG? Maybe he should be calling your open with a not so loose range. Call 13% should be lower since he is up against your UTG open.

      We are looking at 9 combos of AQ which I don't expect him to fold unless you bet super large, maybe KdJd KdTd JdTd Td9d Jd9d (5-7 combos of flushes), maybe he has some KdQs type of hand too.

      I think we should bet somewhere between 35-50% of the pot. If we bet small we may anticipate some sort of bluff raise and we can then call. If we halfpot it's probably a bet/fold.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      I'm starting at pokerstars today so he can't know my open raise UTG.

      Yeah, I was only considering how much he would call with AQ but actually I should consider a size that let's me bet/fold.

      I don't like beting 33% and then calling cause I don't think he is gonna bluff often enough and I think he will call AQ and ship flushes, and that sucks for us.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      I was thinking about a 3/4 bet on the river. I dont think we can represent a depolarized range by betting very small on the river.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      3/4 pot bet isolates us vs better and also gives us less room to bet/fold. So I don't like such a huge bet.