[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - KK: overpair vs raise flop

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      CO: 29/25
      5 af
      5% call open CO
      56% fold vs cbet
      14% raise cbet
      45% wwsf
      5k hands

      BB: 19/16
      43% fold vs cbet

      hero cbet a bit under 70%, higher than average fold vs raise cbet

      CO: $53.25 (106.5 bb)
      BTN: $49.25 (98.5 bb)
      SB: $24.53 (49.1 bb)
      BB: $55.61 (111.2 bb)
      UTG: $54.57 (109.1 bb)
      Hero (MP): $52.75 (105.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K:heart: K:spade:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($4.75) 2:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, CO raises to $7.50,

      Its weak to fold here?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      1) At NL50, people don't really bluff raise in multiway too often
      2) 3 low cards, so he reps 9 combos of sets, which is a lot
      3) Even if we include some semi-bluffs I think we are still crushed by his overall range. I don't really expect to have any more than 33% equity here and given that we are OOP it's hard to showdown.

      I really do not mind a bet/fold on the Flop, as weak as it sounds. His range is mostly sets, combo draws, and very few combos of flush draws (which he may very well just call on the Flop instead of raise).