[NL2-NL10] [NL5 SH] QTs, too much bluffing for 1 hand?

    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $5.19 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 9, AF: 1.3, Hands: 130
      BB: $10.34 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 25, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 127
      UTG: $5.45 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 3.1, Hands: 305
      MP: $13.94 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 13, 3B: 2, AF: 1.4, Hands: 132
      CO: $5.84 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 82 -- 3BF: 3/3
      Hero (BTN): $7.09 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 4.0, Hands: 20611

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with Q :spade: T :spade:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, SB calls $0.43, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.10) 8 :spade: 8 :club: 2 :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.84, Hero calls $0.84

      Turn: ($2.78) J :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.35, SB calls $1.35

      River: ($5.48) K :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $4.45, SB folds

      Preflop: the guy looks tight, but he folded everything so far. I think I will be dominated so often here, so I just bluff 3B him. Some weird call from SB we have here.

      Flop: I'm pretty sure that he has either a pocket pair that he doesn't 4bet, or AXcc that got a NFD here. Or he bluffs, but it would be a bit weird. I don't believe him having much here, we can improve on the turn, and we can push him off his small pockets as well.

      Turn: I think a jack is a scare card for his range, so I bet after he shows weakness. The only thing...perhaps bet smaller to leave us more room for a river bluff.

      River: the situation repeats again, K is even more scary, and I know for sure that all NFD and pockets are folding here, so I shove.

      TY
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi German,

      I think our play is a bit spewy for this limit.

      All the facts point to a strong range for villain. Nitty over this sample and cold calls a 3-bet just to almost pot size that flop? What does that tell us?

      A strong hand, possibly pretty strong. Our hand is really weak at best and the board has to run perfect to get some folds out of him.

      We also have no guarantee that he stops betting on the turn after his line preflop/flop.

      So fold the flop, save yourself the money :)

      Don't forget, we don't really succeed in trying to make nitty guys fold strong ranges. Sure it may work every now and then if the board runs perfect but it's rarely enough to even break even overall.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Hey Bogdan,

      I didn't plan to go broke unimproved on the flop. I just thought that I should catch a top pair, SD or FD quite often on the turn. Plus we showed a lot of strength preflop, and he will rarely continue aggressively with medium pockets.

      I also just don't get these donks. I always think that they are trying to take the pot down, and are too afraid to check-raise with their vulnerable hands. How should I react on such weird donks? Assume that they don't know that my CB is like 80%, so they donk for value?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Th334
      Hey Bogdan,

      I didn't plan to go broke unimproved on the flop. I just thought that I should catch a top pair, SD or FD quite often on the turn. Plus we showed a lot of strength preflop, and he will rarely continue aggressively with medium pockets.

      I also just don't get these donks. I always think that they are trying to take the pot down, and are too afraid to check-raise with their vulnerable hands. How should I react on such weird donks? Assume that they don't know that my CB is like 80%, so they donk for value?
      You are ignoring some key pieces of information here.

      A 3-bet cold call. A somewhat nitty guy over the sample we have.

      What does this point to?

      Then we have a board that's not 100% cbet friendly so he may be scared of a check back with his pair and he bets (or lets say some FDs).

      On top of that your pair outs may not even be live. What if you pick up a T on the turn? Do you go broke? How about Q?

      Your backdoor flush gets in till the river only 5% of the time.
    • Th334
      Th334
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2012 Posts: 971
      Yeah, you are right :f_biggrin:

      I actually thought about all these points, I just decided to ignore them for some reason, or even turn them around as with the board texture :)

      I agree that I got very lucky with the board and that he probably had some TT-99 or QQ, but not a set of Jacks.

      So I think your comment that "our goal is not to bluff tight guys from their strong ranges" should be something I take away from this hand.

      Thanks.

      PS: well, at least I managed to use the turn and river cards to my advantage. Being an NL5 palyer (fish), I could screw it up as well and check/fold there :f_biggrin: