[NL2-NL10] Flush on paires board

    • Ferueda
      Ferueda
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2012 Posts: 213
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2065882
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BB): $11.10 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 24, 3B: 9, AF: 3,1, Hands: 2791
      UTG: $4.85 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 29, 3B: 0, AF: 2,0, Hands: 21
      MP: $13.99 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 9, AF: 0,0, Hands: 19
      CO: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 10, AF: 1,0, Hands: 51
      BTN: $4.45 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 10, 3B: 7, AF: 11,0, Hands: 254
      SB: $4.21 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 7, AF: 0,0, Hands: 44

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with J :heart: Q :heart:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65) 5 :diamond: K :diamond: K :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG checks

      Turn: ($0.65) 3 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.48, UTG calls $0.48

      River: ($1.61) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, UTG raises to $4.07, Hero calls $2.87
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Fereuda,

      Let's start from the end: I would fold here versus his raise (villains rarely ever bluff the river in spots like this, at these limits - or raise worse for value). Now let's backtrack and see everything else.

      Villains range for checking the flop and calling turn could be 55, KK, 33, 88 and heart backdoor flushes.

      That's a lot of hands that beat us, 10 combos of boats+, and possibly all combos of suited aces (let's assume 7).

      So let's look at the odds we get: 30%. That means that besides the 17 value combos he represents we need him to have at least 8 combos of hands we beat (bluffs or worse value). Can you see any?

      Maybe T9s, maybe 76/56s but that's pretty much it (other than pure bluffs).