[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - AJo: with good reads

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      19/18
      5.1 af
      86% steal sb
      72% cbet flop
      83% skip cbet/f oop
      40% agg%
      47% wwsf
      5k hands

      Reads:
      SBbb 42o ..KT5ssXJs no cbet/raise 3xs, 3/4, c
      SBbb T6o .. 942sTsQs no cbet/raise 2.7x, 55%, c


      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      CO: $26.50 (53 bb)
      BTN: $54.77 (109.5 bb)
      SB: $50.25 (100.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $55.66 (111.3 bb)
      UTG: $25.70 (51.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:spade: A:diamond:
      4 folds, SB raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.40) 5:spade: 8:heart: T:club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB raises to $4.50, Hero ?

      I think my reads are good enough to go for a move.
      What do you prefer? Raise the flop? Call and raise the turn? Or even get to the river?
  • 5 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      What's 83% skip cbet/f oop? Fold vs bet when missed cbet?

      He raises 86% from SB, just 3bet AJo for value. You should not fold any hand to him and probably 3bet close to 100% when he opens <2.5x with 86% of hands.

      If he check/folds often on the flop as PFR you can bet/fold profitably. That said, given your reads that he bluff raises this specific spot, I'd say it's decent to make a move. What does ",c" mean in your notes? That he checks turn? What I'm considering is whether calling or 3betting is better. If you 3bet you make it a bit easier on him although still +EV for you. If you call you make it tougher on him and, with good idea of using position, it can be a lot more +EV for you.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      What's 83% skip cbet/f oop? Fold vs bet when missed cbet?

      Yes.

      C means check.

      He folds 76% vs 3bet, and 84% on the SB and calls only 8% vs 3bet. I felt that 3betting was a waste here.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Let's do some rough maths... He folds calls 8% vs 3bet in general but probably more in SB. To not take it too far, we say 10%. Now, we also now he doesn't call the top 10% of 86% so he probably 4bets QQ+, AK, maybe JJ since it's harder to play. We assume he 4bet bluffs sometimes with complete crap so he doesn't 4bet for thin value. This means he calls around 8.5% range (10% of his opening) which gives us:


             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    56.51%  51.97%   4.54% { AdJs }
      MP3    43.49%  38.95%   4.54% { TT-77, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo }



      Well, we are 56% and IP. I'd say not bad at all. If he 4bets AQ, it means he flats worse than AQ so we increase our equity a bit but 56% is a good rough estimate.

      To learn from this: Look at folding vs 3bet stat ALWAYS in relation to his opening stat. It can be wider than it seems or a lot narrower than it seems, i.e. 5% UTG opener never folds to 3bets. He is not loose at all. This is the opposite. 76% folds means you make instant profit from the times he folds, NOT that he has nutted defending range.

      If he check/raises as PFR as a bluff here and then gives up I slightly favour calling EVEN with so little playability. If you have J9s it would definitely be just a call. AJo is 'weak' enough to 3bet but at the same time a 3bet here looks more like a bluff than a call. It gets a bit complicated as you see but you can't always have it easy. The plan with calling is that you have 6 outs AND he check/folds often enough on the turn.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      I usually refrain 3betting a polarized range when one reg dont like to call 3bets (unless i pretend to 5bet all-in) even if the fold vs 3bet its low, because i will face a 4bet very often and i cant shove hands like AJ/KQ. In those cases i feel thats a waste to 3bet a good hand if i cant shove it, because very rarely i can get to the flop to take advantage of my stronger range. What do you think about that? That was my idea here.
      I dont know the 4bet range of villain here (HM2 is deleting hands now so i cant replay the hand) but i guess its very high at SB, maybe 8% at SB or so.

      If calling i was thinking to raise the turn, because in one case he bet 3/4 the turn with complete air, or maybe call again on the turn because he checked the river, but maybe thats too insane.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I think polarized/depolarized is just incomplete and only part of the story. Whether one or the other, I think you should always have an undefined 3betting range that contains a good number of broadways, pairs and suited connectors/gappers so you can have a good range on any board texture postflop.

      When someone 4bets often, AJ is not that bad to 3bet/5bet but I'd most definitely start with pairs. With AJ you already make profit when he folds and when he calls. Depending on how much he 4bets you can 5bet or not. I would simply FORCE my opponent to either bleed chips or stop opening 86% in SB vs me. I do this by playing every hand and possibly every hand with a 3bet. If you are not comfortable with such dynamics, calling is obviously fine but I think the aggressive approach is better here.