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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AJs vs flop x/mr from reg

    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      BB: $34.63 (138.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $25.51 (102 bb)
      BTN: $16.42 (65.7 bb)
      SB: $25.35 (101.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J A
      MP raises to $1, Hero calls $1, BTN folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.25) 8 A 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.06, SB raises to $4.12, MP folds, Hero calls $2.06

      Turn: ($11.49) 2 (2 players)
      SB bets $6.75, Hero calls $6.75

      River: ($24.99) K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      $24.99 pot ($1.24 rake)
      Final Board: 8 A 3 2 K
      Hero mucked J A and lost (-$11.87 net)
      SB showed A 8 and won $23.75 ($11.88 net)

      What do you think about this hand? Should I fold on the flop? Did i do something wrong?
      MP is a 62/52 within 21 hands.
      I didn't fold on the flop because of his high flop AF/AFQ stats and because of my position. On the turn I thought I am ahead of his range because of the betsizing.

      What could be his range after the x/mr?
      AK-AQ? I think he would 3bet them preflop.
      Although There could be sets in his range (assuming he saw it more +EV to CC in the SB with PP-s because of the MP), but why would a reg x/mr his sets on a dry flop like this?

      What's your opinion?
  • 2 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      Just fold flop. He is raising with MP left to act, he doesn't call a lot in SB so he can't have a wide range here. Although you aren't cbetting here, if we look at his plays vs cbets it's always the nuts. I'd assume he checked so MP can bet and he can do his thing. After MP checks, you bet so it's not much different from what he is used to: guy IP bet, I raise my strong hands.

      At 4.6% 3bet, he would'nt 3bet AQ all the time actually. Look at 3betting from each position, not overall. You have enough hands to use those stats positionally.

      Regarding your last question of why he would play a set like this.. It doesn't really matter why he does it if that's what he has when he does it. The way to exploit super value ranges is to fold. You see his raises vs cbets are nutted, you are far from the nuts, you just fold. His thinking can be as limited as: I have a hand, I want a bigger pot or as complex as I think he thinks I think raising sets here is bad so he'll never think I raise with a set so I'm going to because he is likely to play back because of my perceived range. Whichever his reasoning is, it doesn't matter when his hand is always a set.
    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Thank you!:)