[NL2-NL10] NL5 Zoom - Holding Set When Draw Completes

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2066855
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $9.34 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 33, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 3
      Hero (SB): $11.26 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 4.7, Hands: 1587
      BB: $5.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 39
      UTG: $15.85 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 30
      MP: $2.13 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 2
      CO: $7.28 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with 3 :spade: 3 :club:
      UTG raises to $0.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.18, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.45) 9 :club: 8 :diamond: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.60, UTG calls $0.40

      Turn: ($1.65) T :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

      River: ($4.05) J :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, UTG raises to $4, Hero calls $2

      PF: Against a 4BB UTG raise, I expect to win a stack most times I hit.

      F: At the time, I thought UTG may be acting weak to tempt me to 2-bet. This is probably thinking too deeply, he is most likely weak.

      When he calls, I thought he must have AA-TT. In hindsight, he could have done this with AJ+ or Axs or maybe even KQ.

      T: At the time, I was betting purely for value from AA-JJ but could also expect AJ and AQ to call. If he bets then I guess he has TT for a better set.

      R: At the time, I was betting purely for value from AA-KK and AJ. I could check and hope they bet, along with missed flush draws but I'm not sure how likely that is.

      When he bets, it's clear that he has Qx or JJ, so I should fold.
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop is fine.

      I prefer a bigger check/raise on the flop - around $0.75.

      On the turn your bet is good.

      On the river betting is very thin. There are four cards to straight on the board and I'm not sure if the guy is going to call us with one pair hand at all.
      If you have any reads on him that he has a hard time folding overpairs or top pairs, I think betting will be good but I'd make it around $1.3-$1.5.